It does seem odd to only see someone ousted because of a vigilante, on night one of all nights. Mafia caught red-handed and passing it off as vigilante kill? (It's actually a pretty smart tactic now that I think about it). I'm not entirely convinced either way.
If I didn't know just how good Synkarin is at making me believe him I would probably be inclined to straight up vote, but I think we have time to see what else comes out of the calculations.
Like I said before. I had a twenty five to thirty three percent chance to be right. Sure, means I had a chance to be wrong. But the difference in the percentages for today versus last night are only a few points. I've never claimed to be a mastermind at this game, I just had the misfortune of a bad hunch. Some schools of thought, according to what I read, say that vigilantes should be putting the trigger every night phase. Others say only when someone is confirmed. Sadly, that won't be an option any longer.
Aww man, worst timezone to be in. Stupid early AM activity window.
Not much more to contribute than what's already been said. Despite being totally conned by Synkarin in the last game, again I'm inclined to trust him now. Last game had 16 town and only 3 mafia, and so we could afford some mistakes. We're in a smaller game here, and can't afford the same misfirings.
The 'oops, pulled a Celina' defence while amusing is a flimsy one, but then again there's no strong way of extricating yourself after being caught red-handed.
Will leave off voting until everyone has checked in.
I'm mildly concerned about Synkarin's role reveal, but frankly I'm very much inclined to trust him. (Possibly because we were on the same team last game?)
Tarkenton's defense is possible, but frankly I don't know that having an over-eager loose canon of a vigilante is significantly better than him being mafia. Basing kills on the first day's level of chatter seems incredibly sketchy.
We're still missing Ieptix and Tremula checking in, but I'm going to go ahead and Vote: Tarkenton
I might just be more risk-averse, but man, presenting the numbers of a night 1 vigilante killing as ~25% chance (assuming 3/12 mafia) of getting it right doesn't really help make your argument stronger. It's a 75% chance of getting it wrong and in a small game, only helps the mafia.
Keep your vig for the conundrum situations! i.e Can't trust either? Kill them both!
I'm with Ushaara on this one. I'm going to wait for @Ieptix and @Tremula's input, but I'll make an official vote once they chime in.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
I don't support lynching Tarketon over a misfire. He just needs to not do it again and target more carefully. Happens to the best of us (specifically me), but we can't waste town lives, especially a vigilante this early.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
That is to say I find his claim believable enough, but it does beg the question about what the scum did last night. Did they lay low or was there a block? That information will become useful later in the game.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
For the record, people who put half hearted defenses tend to be town. Tarkenton isn't trying all that hard to convince us, which makes sense considering there's only so much he can do beyond a power reveal if he's telling the truth. Scum tend to go into verbose defenses.
For the record, people who put half hearted defenses tend to be town. Tarkenton isn't trying all that hard to convince us, which makes sense considering there's only so much he can do beyond a power reveal if he's telling the truth. Scum tend to go into verbose defenses.
Well there is the counter example from the last game, where aside from saying 'I'm an English Catholic investigator' Synkarin didn't put up that much of a defence when first caught by Vivet either, leaving it to some other sucker (i.e. me) to defend him, push the lynch elsewhere and give him another day.
It's just as likely that the half-hearted defence is because he was caught with his hand in the cookie-jar. A vigilante claim is his one and only option.
He probably meant that, assuming he is a vigilante and not a good-for-nothing <insert appropriately denigrating noun here>, it's no longer possible to save a vigilante kill only until we have confirmed mafia because, well, he already jumped the gun and got Dr. Teller fired. Clarification is always nice, though.
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much to go on here to discern truths. If Tarkenton is vigilante, then lynching him negates one of our useful assets, and also he's now painted a nice big target on himself for the mafia so it might not matter either way. OTOH, if he's a mafia and is trying to play us because Synkarin caught him, then our only good play is to have him removed.
So we have the following possibilities:
Vig+lynch: We lose our vigilante, mafia doesn't have to bother with him during the night and can drop someone else.
Vig+no-lynch: Mafia knows who our vigilante is, can have him removed (probably would? I'm not trained in general mafia strategy, but it seems dropping a vigilante would be a pretty obvious move on their part). Or maybe they wouldn't because we don't have any solid leads, and he's more likely to off another one of us than one of them, and also makes him seem more suspicious if he does make it through the night.
Mafia+lynch: We get rid of one of those dirty spies/saboteurs/bad guys. Good for town.
Mafia+no-lynch: Bad for town.
Speaking of Synkarin catching him, it was mentioned that there was an armed guardsman inovolved in Teller's removal. It seems unlikely that a mafia would have the ability to order around armed guards in such a high-security facility? So it's plausible that Tarkenton is actually town, but this is tenuous.
Checking in, and while I don't want to toss away too much information, I did get attacked last night, so the mafia is active. I'm not sure if I was protected, but when I decided to take a restroom break I came back to find a hastily written note (too hasty to be pre-prepared, so I'm assuming it was written when they picked the lock on my office to take me out and then discovered I was absent) that berated me in an official tone with a signature that wasn't legible, and not in the normal way.
I'm also not discounting that Silvanus could have hidden invulnerabilities, and if mine is the bladder of a schoolgirl written into my character, then I'll be glad to take it. Let me do my work, damnit.
Will make a longer post come lunch time. Suffice to say, don't kill me until after if you're gonna.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Day 2 and already everything is going nuts! Here is what bugs me. The only way to confirm Tarkenton's story is to lynch him, but then we risk losing a vig, especially if Trem's story checks out. Tricky situation.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
Since I love writing this, Vote: Arcanis. This is only to show that I am paying attention and ready to vote, but am unwilling to jump on any bandwagon since I don't have a decision of my own to make, but am willing to aid someone's theory if it's presented in a strong enough manner.
Risk nothing. You will. As far as the future goes, if we want to utilize vigging by committee, that's fine by me. Obviously my hunch didn't pay out, and I'd rather not get targeted for said misfiring. I can fire again, if necessary. Track me watch me, guard me, jail me, whatever you think you need to do. But I've put myself on the line to make this project succeed, and I'd hate to see that all go away.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
"'Cause the fighting don't stop till I walk in." -Synkarin's Lament.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Could just be a threat and not an actual attack, which has other consequences that we aren't sure about. Could be a delayed night action that takes effect later, like a flavorful version of the poisoner (ie, you poison someone, they die at the end of the next day). Could be arsonist note. Hard to say really. Not sure even Tremula knows at this point.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
By 'not give too much away' I mean that I don't want to literally re-type what I was given, at risk of getting mod-killed (I am very bad at overstepping boundaries and choosing the most important information [and didn't want to miss the tudor rose of last game possibly]). I did the best I could to give away all pertinent information that I received, should have made that more clear - my bad.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Kinda looks like we have 2 options:
1) Lynch Tarkenton. Risk losing a vigilante, potentially kill a scum or serial killer.
2) Don't lynch Tarkenton. Risk leaving a scum or a serial killer in the game, potentially save a vigilante.
Re: Tremula's claim, it could mean any number of things. If we lynch Tarkenton and discover his alignment, this helps us figure out if Trem somehow evaded the scum's nightkill, or if we should be concerned about a third party threat.
The downside is that if Tarkenton turns up vigilante, we don't know much more than we started with. But I'm not sure if there are any other more viable lynch targets for today and I'm not convinced a no-lynch helps us out at this point.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
1) Lynch Tarkenton. Risk losing a vigilante, potentially kill a scum or serial killer.
2) Don't lynch Tarkenton. Risk leaving a scum or a serial killer in the game, potentially save a vigilante.
Re: Tremula's claim, it could mean any number of things. If we lynch Tarkenton and discover his alignment, this helps us figure out if Trem somehow evaded the scum's nightkill, or if we should be concerned about a third party threat.
The downside is that if Tarkenton turns up vigilante, we don't know much more than we started with. But I'm not sure if there are any other more viable lynch targets for today and I'm not convinced a no-lynch helps us out at this point.
Vote Tarkenton for now.
When you list the points like that, it's hard to disagree. Not lynching could be a bigger risk.
I'm curious to know if Tremula was perhaps protected or jailed, or able to outright evade the 'kill' or whatever the bad guys do in this game. Defamation? Kicked off the job? Anyway, I don't think anyone should reveal if either of the first are the answer, but it might be helpful information in the future if anyone needs verifying.
I'm not keen on hasty early lynches, and if Synkarin taught me anything last game (I promise I've given you a clean slate) it's that being quick to believe can be a bad thing. I'm being cautiously skeptical but I don't actually think he's lying. I tend to agree that a lynch on Tark would be the better option than blindly hoping to catch someone else on day two.
Comments
Not much more to contribute than what's already been said. Despite being totally conned by Synkarin in the last game, again I'm inclined to trust him now. Last game had 16 town and only 3 mafia, and so we could afford some mistakes. We're in a smaller game here, and can't afford the same misfirings.
The 'oops, pulled a Celina' defence while amusing is a flimsy one, but then again there's no strong way of extricating yourself after being caught red-handed.
Will leave off voting until everyone has checked in.
Keep your vig for the conundrum situations! i.e Can't trust either? Kill them both!
It's just as likely that the half-hearted defence is because he was caught with his hand in the cookie-jar. A vigilante claim is his one and only option.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
ArcanisNobody - Tremula (1)Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."