A Return to Mafia 2: Electric Boogaloo

LehkiLehki Member Posts: 1,304 Mythical
Welcome to the Mafia I couldn't think of a title for! 

The Rules!
 For those who need reminding.
  1. Votes MUST be in bold to count. (ex. Vote Sylandra, Vote Nobody)
  2. Once a majority has been reached, the day ends. Anything that happens after a final vote will not happen, including unvotes to bring the target below the minimum threshold, unless a power explicitly allows this.
  3. If no majority is reached by days end, it will result in No Lynch.
  4. You are not allowed to post in the thread during the night phases.
  5. You are not allowed to communicate with each other outside the thread unless your role specifically allows you to do this.
  6. Once you are eliminated, you are not allowed to post in the thread during the day phase unless your role explicitly allows this.
  7. You are not allowed to quote your role PM. 
  8. Do not discuss game details outside of the game.
  9. If you go inactive, please let me know so I can find a replacement player. (Those interested in being a replacement player, please message me for a waitlist!)
  10. You're not allowed to edit your posts. Doublepost instead if you want to clarify something.
  11. You must be sportsmanlike. If you are rude or inflammatory to the point that the game ceases to be enjoyable for the rest of the players, I reserve the right to modvig you out of the game. Mafia may be a game about emotional manipulation and deceit, but it's still a game! Have fun with it. But most importantly, be respectful.
  12. The game will end when either the town or the mafia have reached their victory condition.
  13. Dayphase will last about one week, just to ensure everybody gets their chance to speak.
  14. Nightphases will last no longer than 24 hours. If night actions are not delivered at the end of the night phase, it will be read as no action.
Players:

1. Tremula
2. Luce
3. Sylandra
4. Portius
5. Kalikai
6. Vinra

You have until June 1st, 10PM EDT to vote.
Tagged:
«1

Comments

  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent


    Wassup, y'all.
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    Ah, mafia gifs. How I missed thee.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    In  the hope of having useful brainings while we give everyone time to chime in and confirm that they've noticed the game is up, let's pick at the setup a little and see if we can get reasonable assumptions going. It's late and I probably shouldn't be trying to have coherent thoughts at this hour, so make sure I'm not doing a stupid.

    Assuming this is a normal setup and we're not dealing with a cult or something:

    There are six players, mafia win when they are half the population. Three scum would be an immediate win, so we have either one or two.

    If there are two, we basically start off in mylo. Two scum would be a 4/2 split. Lynch a townie, go to 3/2, they kill one for the win. If we don't lynch, first nightphase brings us to 3/2. If we mislynch then, 2/2 and the scum win. If we don't lynch then, they bring it to 2/2 that night. If we do kill, it goes to 3/1 and we get to keep going.

    I think that it is unlikely that we'd have a setup where the town can only win through perfect play. So we are probably looking at either a single scum (possibly with a third party bouncing around) or two scum with the town having absurd powers to compensate. Which I think is also unlikely, so I'm going to assume a one scum game.

    Probably too early to speculate on powers. I would broadly guess that we would have few to no investigative powers with a game of this size, so we probably cannot count on them.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent
    So more likely than not:

    -We have a game with 2 mafia.
    Or:
    -We have a game where it's the town vs basically a serial killer.

    6 people isn't enough space to get a cult going, I think.

    The most basic of basic town powers are doctor and investigator, so if we're speculating about set-up, I'd say those tend to be safer assumptions than not (But you know what they say about assumptions...!). I don't see this game having crazy kitchen sink powers, though. Smaller games tend to be pared down powers-wise.

    Speaking of smaller games: I love how high the stakes are from the get-go. I'm debating on the merits of a day 1 lynch given the fact we're limited on dayphases from the get-go. My gut says the more information the better, but if we lynch wrong (likely), it puts extra pressure on us to pick the right person the following day. Though it makes it more likely we'd pick the right person the next day. Pros and cons!
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • LuceLuce Fox Populi Member Posts: 2,520 Transcendent
    I think Lehki mentioned wanting a more or less vanilla game in the recruiting thread, didn't he? I agree that we're kinda too small to do a cult set up, they'd essentially win night 1 unless we hit the recruiter day 1 on no information.
  • VinraVinra Member Posts: 4 Inept
    Y'all are smart.

    No, seriously though :P I'm looking up some of the terminology here I don't get, and it's making sense so far! I'll wait for someone else to bring up the lynching business though >.< GLHF everyone! :D
  • TremulaTremula Banished Quasiroyal Member Posts: 2,645 Transcendent
    All here and all caught up. It's going to see how Sylandra's problem solving skills fire in real time, rather than over the course of a few weeks in multiple days. Without a heavy player presence having a tonne of investable powers doesn't make a whole lot of sense, so I'd imagine we have Two mafia, three townies, one detective? Otherwise it's likely it's just a single serial killer, much like Syl said. 

    So I'll initiate play by saying that I'm vanilla. I think that just leaves Kalikai to check in?
                          * * * WRACK AND ROLL AND DEATH AND PAIN * * *
                                         * * * LET'S FEEL THE FEAR OF DEATH AGAIN * * *
              * * * WE'LL KILL AND SLAUGHTER, EAT THE SLAIN * * *
      * * * IN RAVAGING WE'LL ENTERTAIN * * *

    Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
  • KalikaiKalikai Member, Moderator Posts: 138 Divine
    Checking in - it does sound like it's a more Vanilla game, so I wouldn't expect too many powers.

    I'm also an advocate for day 1 no lynch (not something I usually do!) due to numbers.
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    I am pretty sure that not lynching is optimal. Mafia with six people is almost a math problem.

    Numbers given as town/scum. Ignoring powers, since we can't count on anything specific being in play or hitting the right people. Also assuming no third parties.

    If start is 4/2:

    Lynching wrong brings us to 3/2 with the nightkill bringing us to 2/2 and a scum win.

    Not lynching brings us to 4/2, with the nightkill bringing us to 3/2.  Mislynching at 3/2 brings us to 2/2, not lynching means that the nightphase brings us to 2/2.

    A correct lynch at any point gives us more breathing room.

    The conclusion: If the game is 4/2 at the start, we must get our first lynch right or we lose. We can take this lynch on either day 1 or day 2. With one less town to hit by accident we have better odds of getting our one lynch right on day 2 than day 1, even if no powers go off. If we do have a relevant power, the odds are much better. Granted, getting the lynch right on day 1 leaves us in a slightly better position, but I think the reduced odds of hitting at all more than balance that out.

    So if you think we have two scum, then voting no lynch is the right choice. We then go into D2, we give everyone a chance to claim an investigative power and share results if they have one, and then we win or we die. If we get it wrong, and if we happen to have a doctor, and if the doctor aims well, we get more wiggle room, but that is a lot of if.


    If start is 5/1:


    This one is a little more complicated. I also think that it is the more likely option, since a 4/2 start is so unforgiving.

    Not lynching on day 1 leaves us at 4/1 after the nightkill. If we lynch and we don't win, we go down to 3/1, which becomes 2/1 after the nightkill. Even lynching at random, the odds there are decent. Powers can also make a big difference in that endgame, but there's a decent chance of them winning it beforehand, depending on what we have. This path ends on day 3.

    Mislynch on day one leaves us at 4/1, with 3/1 after the nightkill. Mislynch there gets us down to 2/1, with the nightkill putting it to 1/1 for the scum win. This path ends on day 2.

    Alternatively, mislynch on day 1 to enter day 2 at a 3/1 split. Do not lynch on day 2, and you go into day 3 with 2/1. This path ends on day 3.

    There are other permutations, but I think they all end up more or less the same. We get two lynches either way, but throwing in a no lynch at some point gives us an extra phase where powers can happen and lets us take our guess on a lower population. So we probably end up a little better off, but not hugely so.


    With that, I am in favor of no lynch, but I want to give you all a chance to point out where I mathed wrong before I vote.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent
    To be the devil's advocate for a moment regarding the day 1 lynch:

    Yes, the math of the "no lynch" situation does play out rather well. However, it's important to add that mafia is as much a game of inference as it is a game of numbers. If everyone simply votes "no lynch" on day 1, we miss out on a day of discussion and observation, in a game where such days will be rare by virtue of having less days in total.

    I'd argue this is a downside for town, and I don't want to waste time rolling over and waiting for the mafia to act.

    On the other hand, a day one lynch gives us more lynch trains to examine. It gives us further observation of which players act in tandem with one another, and which ones don't. It lets us observe the game from the start, and not just from Night 1 onwards.

    With that said, I am going to give us something to discuss in order to see how the wheels turn:
    Tremula said:
    All here and all caught up. It's going to see how Sylandra's problem solving skills fire in real time, rather than over the course of a few weeks in multiple days. Without a heavy player presence having a tonne of investable powers doesn't make a whole lot of sense, so I'd imagine we have Two mafia, three townies, one detective? Otherwise it's likely it's just a single serial killer, much like Syl said. 

    So I'll initiate play by saying that I'm vanilla. I think that just leaves Kalikai to check in?
    Does anyone else find it curious that Tremula claimed vanilla on day 1? I'm not surprised that there are vanilla in play, but I am surprised someone would take the earliest opportunity to claim it for town.

    Let's play out a few scenarios:

    Scenario 1: Tremula is telling the truth.
    If she is, why would she take this moment to speak? Just to let us know there could be vanilla roles in this game? Far better for the mafia to strike blindly at night and kill a vanilla than to kill a role like the investigator or the doctor. We have limited powers (presumably) so it's not in town's best interest to let the mafia know which townies are more or less likely to possess powers. If she's telling the truth, the mafia may then say, "Excellent. Let's target one of the other townies tonight and see if we hit the doctor." And the likelihood of them succeeding in that will have greatly gone up.

    Additionally: if the mafia didn't know vanilla were in play, they do now; it's easier to hide as a vanilla mafia than it is to fake a power, and now they'll know they have that option. I find this scenario possible, but I don't think it is very helpful to the town, which is the reason I find it worth discussing.

    Scenario 2: Tremula is lying, but is still town.
    This makes less sense to me. This move would be good in the sense that she could avoid being targeted for having powers, but it possesses the greater downside in the sense that late-game, people will be less willing to believe her bluff. It would also be easier for the mafia to counter-claim her power role because she established herself as vanilla early on and lied about it. Again, I don't find this scenario likely.

    Scenario 3: Tremula is lying, and is a mafia.
    This is the best play imho. If you are a mafia, are assuming the game has vanilla roles, and call vanilla on day 1, people will be less likely to think you're lying about it in the late game. And the late game is absolutely when mafia will want to be believed to be vanilla--it's the best chance of faking being town. Now, it's possible the investigator would want to look into her at night, but I think generally speaking investigators prefer to look into the complete unknowns ASAP over people who have at least made some claim. It's definitely a gamble, but I could see it paying off for a mafioso.

    So based on that, and out of desire to create discussion, Vote: Tremula.
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    I'll agree that if Trem is town, claiming this early is probably a misplay. Even in the case of scenario 2, I am not convinced it makes Trem safer. In the absence of any night actions or lynches to look at, they can just as easily decide that Trem is a power role making an attempt to deflect the nightkill onto someone else, who would presumably be vanilla. Probably much safer to just not stand out at all.

    Honestly, an unpressured, unverifiable claim is always going to be pretty dubious anyway. Even if we assume a good-faith effort to give information to the town, we can't really trust it. Anyone could make exactly that claim, true or false, without worrying about us catching them in a lie.

    And scum do have an incentive to claim early. People tend to take late, pressured claims as more suspicious than early ones. I'm not convinced that's always the correct thing to do, but it happens a lot. Even more often when that claim is being vanilla. And the scum only need something that will hold up for a night or two. So claiming early and counting on that impulse to lynch the people who claim in the next phase or two is a reasonable play. 

    I will also point out that Trem has come out as suspecting a 4/2 scum split, which encourages the town to be extremely cautious and discourages quick lynches. It would be reasonable for scum to push that view to make sure that they can get a nightkill on a strong player before people seriously start deliberating.

    So, we are likely looking at a town misplay or a failed scum attempt at building an early cover. I'm not sure which of those I think is more likely. I'm willing to take both of them as plausible. It is the type of mistake that I could easily see people making.

    I think that the natural conclusion from that is pretty simple. If we are lynching at all, it is correct to lynch Tremula. Do we do it at all? That mostly comes down to deciding if we think it is more likely that Trem made a mistake or that Trem is scum. But there are a few side factors to consider on that:

    Bringing serious discussion to Trem means that we're not really dealing with an empty board anymore. People have opinions, and those opinions make some targets worth more or less than others. Scum are not going to target him if he is town, because it'll be easier to shift a lynch on him than anyone else. He is essentially the perfect scapegoat, and they might risk a detective claim on it in the final dayphase. It'd certainly be a fairly easy claim, since it confirms suspicions. That seriously limits the value of waiting for a nightkill to boost our odds of hitting scum. We're also going to be having this discussion every day until he dies, which can distract from other things. So there's certainly value in lynching now rather than doing it later.

    The cost? On the off chance that it is a 4/2, we pass up the chance of a power giving us info before we take our lynch. Of course, that seems like the less-likely setup, and there is a good chance of the power being useless if we even have one in the first place. So that particular cost is probably not very high, but it is there. There is also the risk that Trem is a power role who was trying to take cover. Probably also not that high a price, considering that a later power claim is going to be dubious.


    TLDR: I'm open to killing Tremula. I am not firmly convinced that his claim is a scum move rather than a misplay, but we're not likely to get more info on that by waiting a turn. Bringing that claim into focus means there are now some structural reasons to lynch sooner rather than later. Reserving judgment and not yet voting.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • LuceLuce Fox Populi Member Posts: 2,520 Transcendent
    Honestly in this game I feel like vanilla is a non-claim as much as a claim. Like saying there's going to be sunshine in Scottsdale, or beer at a tailgate. It's just holding up a sign saying "ignore me". I guess the question is whether we feel like Tremula's misplaying or is a mastermind trying to convince us she's misplaying. Anyone have any iocaine powder?

    I'm still okay with a no-lynch for the reasons already listed, but I don't know if there's as much value in it now that we have someone to at least look at. Delaying isn't terribly useful for us beyond fiddling with the odds and adding extra pressure tomorrow. Essentially either scum leaves Trem alive to scapegoat her, or she is scum and is obviously left alive tomorrow. Smart money's on her being alive tomorrow in either case and we get nothing from her living aside from the numerical buffer if she's town, at the cost of having lylo tomorrow if we have 2 scum.

    But right now we're just guessing at the setup based on what we know. Unless a power role comes forward (which is to say, 'feels suicidal') it might be better to just operate on the idea that everyone is either scum or vanilla. IF we have a power role, and it's not a bomb or jester, they have an uphill fight to hit a useful target, then convince us the next day phase that they did so.

    This is getting us talking, which is good, but we have to avoid ending up in a feedback loop or haring down dead-end paths.

    Speaking of, @Kalikai @Vinra
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent
    And @Tremula - I want to hear their response too.
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • KalikaiKalikai Member, Moderator Posts: 138 Divine
    I'm sorry I haven't chatted much. It's been a busy weekend.

    I'm on the fence. I buy the Portius/Sylandra argument. I do think the safe bet is we're playing 5/1, which gives us more leniency, but the other side of that is if we are playing 5/1, it still benefits the scum to push the lynch to get to that MyLo point sooner, with less information. It's one thing when we've got 15-20 people playing to lynch day one, but this setup is much less forgiving.

    I would like to hear a Tremula response, though I'm not sure it would push me to vote quite yet either way.
  • VinraVinra Member Posts: 4 Inept
    Well, until Trem replies, I still think no lynch is the way to go, for reasons Portius mentioned above. We don't really have any actual clues so far so unless these games work by just mostly randomly voting, this doesn't seem like the best idea.
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent
    Vinra said:
    Well, until Trem replies, I still think no lynch is the way to go, for reasons Portius mentioned above. We don't really have any actual clues so far so unless these games work by just mostly randomly voting, this doesn't seem like the best idea.
    I’m curious, what would you consider an “actual clue”? We have no guarantee there is an investigator in play (or that they’ll survive night 1) so we might not get a lot of cut and dry clues this game.

    A lot of mafia is making arguments about player behavior and inferring whether or not an action a player takes seems more likely to be mafia or town. That’s what my argument about Tremula’s claim above entailed—I posed that the action benefited a scum more than a townie.

    You can prefer not to vote for a lynch on day 1, but calling the argument for lynching Tremula “random” disregards the reasoning behind it.
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    There really is a strong case for lynching Trem now that Sylandra brought it up. My initial argument is only really valid when we have ilttle to nothing else to go on, which ceased to be the case as soon as serious discussion started.

    This is a game where a lot of the players are known to each other, so I was hoping to have a relatively blind nightkill and draw inferences from that. Metaknowledge is valuable, after all. Even having noticed Trem's claim, my basic inclination was to be cautious and use the first kill to confirm/deny suspicions. Such a kill is no longer possible, so I'm now looking into other things, like the Sylandra argument.

    Also if Trem is inactive, there's a case for lynching just on that basis. Nothing in Mafia is less fun than identifying the scum as town but not being able to lynch because of inactivity.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • TremulaTremula Banished Quasiroyal Member Posts: 2,645 Transcendent
    Apologies on the late reply, I ended up being a manly man yesterday who did manly man yardwork. With pressure washers. And spraypaint!

    The long and hard is that I'm drawing a big crowd intentionally because I'm a tactical liability in how poorly I can read two of the major players in this game (Portius, who can fool me easily, and Sylandra, same reason really). Yes, it's a misplay technically but it's also crossing out a negative early and giving you guys information on how people acted in my accusation if I did die. It made sense when I thought of doing it, so then-future me (present me) has to deal with my decisions.

    I'll admit that if everyone else thinks it's 5/1 then I could be in the wrong, I was just pointing out it is a possibility if it were a power-heavy game. I'm writing a second post now with a follow-up but I want to go ahead and show that I am replying.
                          * * * WRACK AND ROLL AND DEATH AND PAIN * * *
                                         * * * LET'S FEEL THE FEAR OF DEATH AGAIN * * *
              * * * WE'LL KILL AND SLAUGHTER, EAT THE SLAIN * * *
      * * * IN RAVAGING WE'LL ENTERTAIN * * *

    Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
  • TremulaTremula Banished Quasiroyal Member Posts: 2,645 Transcendent
    So first off I think Sylandra is absolutely in the right in how she jumped on my claim so early on, I would do the same thing if I were in her shoes. Ultimately it is good information, if less than perfectly obtained, information coming forward so any play is a good play when else we're looking for some meta tells that someone might be mafia with...two people who don't play often? It would be decidedly less productive to have everyone squander on what to do with their day one or pointing a random person out and hoping we get lucky. So better a misplay I can get some amusement or fun from, right?

    Anyway I am phoning it up so not a whole lot I can respond to properly atm. I'll try, though!
                          * * * WRACK AND ROLL AND DEATH AND PAIN * * *
                                         * * * LET'S FEEL THE FEAR OF DEATH AGAIN * * *
              * * * WE'LL KILL AND SLAUGHTER, EAT THE SLAIN * * *
      * * * IN RAVAGING WE'LL ENTERTAIN * * *

    Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
  • KalikaiKalikai Member, Moderator Posts: 138 Divine
    ..what?

    You intentionally drew attention to get lynched because you are worried about misreading Portius/Sylandra? As if this was all part of your Master Plan to prove your innocence?

    I don't know if I buy that.
  • TremulaTremula Banished Quasiroyal Member Posts: 2,645 Transcendent
    "Master Plan"

    1) get information
    2) give information to town
    2.5) entertain myself
    3) I die, probably
    4) ?????
    5) Profit
                          * * * WRACK AND ROLL AND DEATH AND PAIN * * *
                                         * * * LET'S FEEL THE FEAR OF DEATH AGAIN * * *
              * * * WE'LL KILL AND SLAUGHTER, EAT THE SLAIN * * *
      * * * IN RAVAGING WE'LL ENTERTAIN * * *

    Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent
    ...@Lehki wouldn’t put a jester in this game would he (Would he?!). I like to assume no jesters though as a rule so I’m going to just ignore that inclination.

    So @Tremula assuming you are town and just wanted to just drum up discussion, why direct that focus on you? Why not talk about something else?

    In other words, if you’re town: why do you think dying a martyr on day 1 furthers more than hinders the town’s cause? You know it would start LyLo the next day.  

    I pointed out your behavior because I felt it hurt the town, not helped it. Explain to me how it helps?
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    Oh, good. I'm glad I'm not the only one whose first thought was 'Trem is clearly a jester. Wait, no. There can't possible be one of those. But he looks like one.'

    Hm. My intuition says that this feels more like Tremula patching a quick defense together as scum than it does a planned thing, but I'm not sure I trust my intuition. I try not to, as a general rule. On the other hand, it has been pretty good with Trem in the past. And I can't really bring myself to rule out Tremula doing this as town. It is the kind of error that I would expect, in the same way that I'm prone to errors of being too cautious.

    I've gone back and forth. I'm thinking it is time to stop agonizing over the goblets and just chug the wine. Ultimately, I think we need to settle this. We're going to do it at some point, might as well get it over with now, when it won't distract us from anything else. And there is a very real chance that Trem is scum.

    So I'm not positive that Trem is actually in the mafia, but I am pretty confident that lynching Tremmy is the right choice.

    Vote Tremula
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • KalikaiKalikai Member, Moderator Posts: 138 Divine
    Well, if the master plan was to get information, I think you've failed. 
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent


    I figured out what it is about Tremula's plan that makes zero sense to me.

    Tremula said:
    So first off I think Sylandra is absolutely in the right in how she jumped on my claim so early on, I would do the same thing if I were in her shoes. Ultimately it is good information, if less than perfectly obtained, information coming forward so any play is a good play when else we're looking for some meta tells that someone might be mafia with...two people who don't play often? It would be decidedly less productive to have everyone squander on what to do with their day one or pointing a random person out and hoping we get lucky. So better a misplay I can get some amusement or fun from, right?

    So in a regular game, sure, you could say, "Yes this is a more exciting Day 1, so at least we have that."

    It would be a misplay, sure, you could get lynched, but the town would still have a shot at victory and hey, some scum probably hopped on the bandwagon. So that's great at least for late-game, isn't it?

    But let's not forget our earlier discussion:

    Portius said:
    I am pretty sure that not lynching is optimal. Mafia with six people is almost a math problem.

    Numbers given as town/scum. Ignoring powers, since we can't count on anything specific being in play or hitting the right people. Also assuming no third parties.

    If start is 4/2:

    Lynching wrong brings us to 3/2 with the nightkill bringing us to 2/2 and a scum win.

    Not lynching brings us to 4/2, with the nightkill bringing us to 3/2.  Mislynching at 3/2 brings us to 2/2, not lynching means that the nightphase brings us to 2/2.

    A correct lynch at any point gives us more breathing room.

    The conclusion: If the game is 4/2 at the start, we must get our first lynch right or we lose. We can take this lynch on either day 1 or day 2. With one less town to hit by accident we have better odds of getting our one lynch right on day 2 than day 1, even if no powers go off. If we do have a relevant power, the odds are much better. Granted, getting the lynch right on day 1 leaves us in a slightly better position, but I think the reduced odds of hitting at all more than balance that out.


    Tldr: There is a very very very high chance that if town picks the wrong lynch, then town loses.

    That's it. Zip. Zero. No second chances. No late game. No "Aw shucks, well we'll get 'em next time, pal!"

    So no town in their right mind would think it's a safe play, or even a play worth suggesting. It could throw the whole game to scum in one fell swoop!

    And Tremula seemed receptive to a 2/4 mafia town split earlier, too.

    In other words,
    Tremula said:
    "Master Plan"

    1) get information
    2) give information to town
    2.5) entertain myself
    3) I die, probably
    4) Town loses
    5) Profit (???)
    Man, I really hope Tremula isn't a jester guys, ahahahaha. You could totally sneak one into a six player game. Oh my god.
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • KalikaiKalikai Member, Moderator Posts: 138 Divine

    Yeah, throwing yourself under the bus isn't really a good idea.

    I'm still not convinced it's 4/2 though, and am heavily leaning towards it being 5/1.  I'm sure it's just conjecture, but why do people really want to keep re-iterating the 4/2 aspect?
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    Because Tremula endorsed it. I think most of us are leaning 5/1, but Trem specifically said that he thought it was 4/2. That should make him very averse to doing this sort of strategy, since it is an instant-loss according to his suspicions. That sort of contradiction can be indicative of someone quickly coming up with a lie and not being able to make it gel with past statements.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • LuceLuce Fox Populi Member Posts: 2,520 Transcendent
    So we're on to a meta conversation about whether we think Tremula is a jester pretending to be scum or scum pretending to be a jester?
  • SylandraSylandra Pro-Agree, Anti-LOL ScumsvilleMember Posts: 4,453 Transcendent
    Luce said:
    So we're on to a meta conversation about whether we think Tremula is a jester pretending to be scum or scum pretending to be a jester?
    I’m going to play as if there’s no jester, personally, but it did come to mind.

    Would you rather do something else? If you think we are wasting the day, there’s nothing stopping you from voting to not lynch.
    Fyler said:
    Sylandra has a very signature (and somewhat twisted) sense of humor
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie Member Posts: 1,496 Transcendent
    I think we have to play as though there is no jester. We're very unlikely to have one. Even if we were likely to have one, we still have to lynch at some point, and absolutely any scum tell can be taken as a deliberate fake if we're thinking jester. It disrupts the whole game.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
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