On another note, why are people harping on whether the brothers are town or not? Have we really worked it through what the options are there?
If both brothers are scum, then all it accomplishes is that they know each other are scum. But they would know that anyways. So the role does nothing. It might as well not exist.
If each brother is on a different team, then what do they know about each other except the "brother" label? It doesn't really give us anything by way of information, except possibly confusing things with contradictory statements and making people suspicious of each other. But "contradictory statements" and "people suspicious of each other" is the default state of Mafia, so again: the role would do nothing.
If the brothers are a third/neutral team with an unknown goal, pressuring them still doesn't bring us closer to figuring out the scum with the information we do have.
Given how interesting and impacting the powers we've seen used have been, I'd like to think that if anyone has a role, it does something rather than nothing. So I really only see two scenarios possible:
Both brothers are town, giving us information if they are trustworthy; or by contrast
Shaddus and Aysidra are scum (possibly with some other ability) and are making the whole thing up to begin with as a distraction, and no "brother" role exists at all
Unless someone wants to point out something I've missed, which of these two scenarios seems more likely from what we've found out? Celina's statement today leans me towards 1.
Of note: Ermines are mongooses. Mongeese? Mustelids.
Ohhhh! I didn't make that Ermine = Mongoose leap at all, woops. Womp womp. GG, Biology classes. Okay, with that in mind, then my doom and gloom feelings toward these random mongoose statues have been solidified.
Let me theory-craft for a sec.
@Shaddus brought up conversions and I was wondering about the possibility of a cult myself, because the mongoose statue seems like it marks people in some way for... well, something. I have no idea what, but for argument's sake, let's say it's to convert people to being mongoose(s). When people are converted to a new faction in mafia games, generally they know it, and I can't imagine people would be announcing their bejewelled mongoose statues if they knew that they had joined Club Ermine 4lyfe.
However! I think if we a) assume people are being converted, b) assume people know when they're being converted, and c) also know people are announcing when they receive mongoose statues, then I think it's safe to also assume d) the mongoose statue does not determine conversion status UNLESSit's one of those delayed effects that only takes place after a day has passed. Otherwise no one would announce their statue-receiving! That would be silly.
For that reason I've been entertaining the possibility that the mongoose statue is part of an arsonist-esque thing instead of a cult, but honestly who knows. My point: If there's a conversion aspect, and if that aspect is tied to the mongoose statue, then I'd say the conversions in this game couldn't fully take place until night without suggesting some very questionable decisions on the part of the converted.
This isn't to say that the mongoose statue is the only way a hypothetical conversion could happen. It just seems odd that a statue shows up and... doesn't seem to affect people. It has to mean something! Re: Enyalida, it's also completely possible though that a scum member is able to erase someone's records from view upon death, which would make the cult argument less strong. It's anyone's guess at this point.
Anyway, this is all just rambling conjecture. But cults were on the table and I was thinking about them too, so felt like talking through my feelings.
I suppose I will also not refrain from mentioning, that I highlighted that Celina confirmed a theory of mine that night conversations might show up for tracking type powers and that @Synkarin's response was to effectively FOS me for doing something that... makes sense in a game of mafia.
Re: tracking night conversations, this theory sounds likely to me, too. I mean, I assume the conversation is in person and not telepathic. It makes sense a tracker would be able to...well, track you.
As for the @Ayisdra and @Shaddus questions, I'm at least satisfied that they are anti-Ermine for now. There's the possibility of another faction, but like Azureus, I'm inclined to believe in the brother situation as a town-friendly one until proven otherwise.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
Oh, yeah a "brother" scenario isn't unusual actually. The fact that they're siblings means that they're, most likely on the same side, it's lovers that tend to be... star-crossed?
@Sylandra, a theory that I had was that the cult can only convert Chimaera (which would likely mean its a choice to either convert or kill), if that's the case then, as has been pointed out, the mafia area actually a lot closer to winning than it would seem.
It also means that those who have claimed a power and Chimaera are probable targets, especially with those that have been claimed so far, even more so when considering that conversion means no night kill and as such renders trackers less useful.
At this point in the game, I don't think it makes sense to hide any information, especially given that we've gone without any kind of deaths etc during the Night phase.
It's been pointed out that there was a struggle last night, the details of which we don't know. You'd think someone would know.
Anyway, the people that we don't really have information on are as follows
Tremula, Tarkenton, Sylandra, Azureus(vague stuff, but not anything solid), Siam and myself
Saran - motion detector
Celina - tracker
Luce - governor
Shaddus/Aysidra - brothers
Ssaliss - Jailer
lynched-
Riluna - doctor
Enyalidia - something, but we'll never know
Allyrianne - immunity thing
I think it's important to note that Allyrianne was resistant to poison (one shot), relaying their method of attack. Whether the poison is deadly remains to be seen, but it's still a possibility. The mongoose theory is quite interesting, but we don't really know much more.
I think it's odd that no one has piped up with a vision yet, especially given we were hoping to verify Celina's comments per vision.
So, what's the plan, do we lynch? who do we lynch? What else has anyone to say
Also haven't heard from Siam - @Siam, where you at.
I'm not sure I buy some sort of conversion theory. No night kills so far may be quite lucky, but is also pretty explainable. The scuffle last night seems to suggest someone was protected, for example.
Hi. I got blocked last night, I think. I got dragged by a chimaera and was forced to play games instead of sleeping anyway.
Viravain, Lady of the Thorns shouts, "And You would seize Me? Fool! I am the Glomdoring! I am the Wyrd, and beneath the cloak of Night, the shadows of the Silent stir!"
It absolutely does @Synkarin, because no one except me knows what I saw and therefore I would like to give them the opportunity to contradict that if they're scum, if they're town then they won't contradict this knowledge and I would be able to support them if necessary. Only a scum would have something to worry about with this.
Anyway I'm going to just restore/maintain my Vote: Synkarin. He's been scummy for a while now, we haven't had significant pressure build up on him while he seems to regularly find himself on the bandwagon of a lynch train that gets information out, though by his own post he has highlighted that he himself has not been in a position to force his roleclaim yet.
I would also point out that we don't know who else interacted with Celina on night one.
We're down to six unclaimed powers, we know there is a blocker, we assume there is a vision investigator. This only leaves four people left that could have interacted with her that night(three if the record wiper is a night action). And all other powers are accounted for I believe. (Doctor targeted herself, Blocker blocked Riluna, Tracker tracked Synkarin, Vision sent message to Celina, Motion Detector monitored Celina, Jailer jailed himself, Brothers talked we assume, Coffee probably didn't use it)
If those assumptions are correct, the likelihood that Celina was targeted by the scum on night one is... rather high given that we'd expect at the least two if the Cultist theory proves correct (one would enable a day one win, while at least two would mean survival til the second night which, without an apparent town night kill, would allow the cult to spread but if the limitation is Chimaera only then it's a limited growth)
Also, for one trying to direct this game, it's interesting to me that while no nightkills by day 4 is almost certainly a cult indicator... he hasn't mentioned the word in this thread.
Oh, also if someone is poison immune and someone was endangered last night, we may see a death tonight, poison kills during the next night phase and makes it harder to track who did the actual kill.
I do have a lingering question, though. Why hasn't whomever was attacked come forward? If it's an immunity they have, it's either spent or useless, since scum already know who they attacked, and withholding that information also prevents us from using their identity to try to discern the attackers'.
I was hoping I wouldn't have to reveal this, since it puts me in a rather delicate situation, but frankly, anything is better than just going back to the same old non-constructive discussions.
I was the one being attacked during the night.
Yes, I jailed myself. We already know I wasn't blocked. That leaves one option: The attacker used an attack that goes through protection. How do I know this, and not that the attack simply failed because I jailed myself? Because A) it doesn't fit with the pattern (I wasn't told Celina targetted me, nor have we seen any kind of sign of a fight during the other two nights). I survived because apparently, being the oldest, meanest, scariest chimaera also came with a one-shot nightkill protection that I wasn't even aware of. In hindsight, the fluff kinda hinted at it, from being an old bodyguard to being the first "monster-type" chimaera to being one of the oldest chimaera still alive (and I plan on continuing that trend). I very much doubt it will kick in a second time though, given how various things looked.
Of course, this means one of two things:
A) The scum have a way to bypass protection. Of course, if they had, then I'd expect them to have used it before now. Also, I probably wouldn't have been a prime target, since I am little to no threat to them at this point (yes, I can block people, but at this stage I'm more likely to target a friendly).
Someone else have a way to bypass protection. This, to me, seems the more likely scenario. Couple with the fact that this happened the very night after my argument with Shaddus, and Shaddus using some kind of night action on Ayisdra (I still don't buy that all they did was talk), I think it's very possible that Ayisdra has a night action that can only be used with the support of his brother (and, most likely, vice versa) and that it can kill through protection, and possibly even through detection (the attack was very stealthy).
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I don't believe Ssaliss, but Ayisdra and I both talked about Synkarin, and said he was acting scummy.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Why would Ssaliss reveal that he had only a one-shot night kill avoidance, and that whatever happened to him was able to go through his protection? Why not just say that he's "unable to be night killed" so the scum won't come after him again to finish him off?
Very suspicious.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Why would Ssaliss reveal that he had only a one-shot night kill avoidance, and that whatever happened to him was able to go through his protection? Why not just say that he's "unable to be night killed" so the scum won't come after him again to finish him off?
Very suspicious.
Because, as I said, odds are they know almost as much about what happened as I do, and thus also know that this wasn't a one-shot thing. Also, why on earth would I lie about this? If I wasn't the one targetted, then they would certainly know about it and would be able to out me. I'd have absolutely nothing to gain from pretending to be attacked.
I have a thought on that, but I'm actually thinking it might be better for town if I keep a lid on it. Could the visions guy give us a shot at Ssaliss tonight, please?
Considering you could be jailing other people you find suspicious and instead keep locking yourself up, it's already a useless use for that power.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Seriously. You've been claiming that I'm acting scummy, but instead of jailing me, you claim you're jailing yourself.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Seriously. You've been claiming that I'm acting scummy, but instead of jailing me, you claim you're jailing yourself.
Well... yes. What's your point? If you're scum, you'd assume I'd be jailing you since you were in my crosshair, and thus you wouldn't be the one to carry out the kill. Instead, someone else would try to kill me. Instead of my jailing doing nothing, I'm instead protecting myself against being attacked.
Comments
If both brothers are scum, then all it accomplishes is that they know each other are scum. But they would know that anyways. So the role does nothing. It might as well not exist.
If each brother is on a different team, then what do they know about each other except the "brother" label? It doesn't really give us anything by way of information, except possibly confusing things with contradictory statements and making people suspicious of each other. But "contradictory statements" and "people suspicious of each other" is the default state of Mafia, so again: the role would do nothing.
If the brothers are a third/neutral team with an unknown goal, pressuring them still doesn't bring us closer to figuring out the scum with the information we do have.
Given how interesting and impacting the powers we've seen used have been, I'd like to think that if anyone has a role, it does something rather than nothing. So I really only see two scenarios possible:
Unless someone wants to point out something I've missed, which of these two scenarios seems more likely from what we've found out? Celina's statement today leans me towards 1.
@Sylandra, a theory that I had was that the cult can only convert Chimaera (which would likely mean its a choice to either convert or kill), if that's the case then, as has been pointed out, the mafia area actually a lot closer to winning than it would seem.
It also means that those who have claimed a power and Chimaera are probable targets, especially with those that have been claimed so far, even more so when considering that conversion means no night kill and as such renders trackers less useful.
Vote Synkparin
Vote: Synkarin
I do have a lingering question, though. Why hasn't whomever was attacked come forward? If it's an immunity they have, it's either spent or useless, since scum already know who they attacked, and withholding that information also prevents us from using their identity to try to discern the attackers'.
I was the one being attacked during the night.
Yes, I jailed myself. We already know I wasn't blocked. That leaves one option: The attacker used an attack that goes through protection. How do I know this, and not that the attack simply failed because I jailed myself? Because A) it doesn't fit with the pattern (I wasn't told Celina targetted me, nor have we seen any kind of sign of a fight during the other two nights). I survived because apparently, being the oldest, meanest, scariest chimaera also came with a one-shot nightkill protection that I wasn't even aware of. In hindsight, the fluff kinda hinted at it, from being an old bodyguard to being the first "monster-type" chimaera to being one of the oldest chimaera still alive (and I plan on continuing that trend). I very much doubt it will kick in a second time though, given how various things looked.
Of course, this means one of two things:
A) The scum have a way to bypass protection. Of course, if they had, then I'd expect them to have used it before now. Also, I probably wouldn't have been a prime target, since I am little to no threat to them at this point (yes, I can block people, but at this stage I'm more likely to target a friendly).
Anyway, I can get behind lynching Synkarin, just like I did the day before.
Vote: Synkarin
I'm in the same camp as @Saran. Save your info until it can prove useful.
That said I will also Vote Synkarin
Ssaliss: Shaddus (1)
Synkarin: Saran, Tarkenton, Luce, Ssaliss, Sylandra (5)
With 12 around, it's 7 to lynch.
Very suspicious.
Heat is on, Sidd. Prove us wrong, please.