I'm smelling a change in the wind that I don't like, so to prove that A) I can still use it and I can use it on myself. I will now Prove the innocence of myself.
I've already stated that I have no night actions, whether or not I'm blocked, jailed, investigated, all that will happen is whomever does the blocking will have wasted that action. Mafia failing to attack notwithstanding, someone would die that night. I've also stated that work has been busy, so I haven't been able to immediately or quickly respond with regularity. Both the Tark and Tremula trains built up quickly. Note that I didn't lift a finger to protect Tremula once the lynch started either, though I could easily have done so.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
More importantly, last night someone used a nightkill and we can reasonably assume that person isn't Azureus.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
Well, if it wasn't Azureus, and we believe Sylandra, and we can't lynch Luce (which we should wait for Kira to confirm) then our only other choice is Ssaliss
As the noose snares around Luce's neck, they deliver a stunning argument for their own innocence, arguing with logic and emotion both that she, herself is truly innocent, and that it would be a severe mistake to lynch her. And that argument... is strong enough. For now.
Luce is unlynchable for the rest of the day.
Everyone is a genius. But if you judge a fish on its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
That really does little to prove you're not scum though. It could be a once-per-person deal like Azureus is (I recall you saying that you wouldn't interfere with lynching Celina the day after you threw out your objection), which means we'll just have to wait for a day before lynching you.
Frankly, this does present an annoying situation though. Assuming you're the scum (which seems likely), and assuming you're the only scum left, it leaves us with the only choices being to either lynch a town, or lynch no one.
Quite frankly, I'm not sure where to go from here. It's obvious that Azureus didn't kill anyone this night, at least, nor did Siam, so those two are completely out. Luce is unlynchable. That leaves four possible lynches: Synkarin, Shaddus, Sylandra or myself.
First, let's assume Synkarin is the culprit. That'd mean that he'd also have the ability to falsify evidence, given the reveal during day... three? IIRC, it basically only said that "the computer says you haven't been anywhere near Ermine" or something to that effect, and as we saw the same night (I think?), computers can be messed with. For a while I toyed around with the idea that Synkarins falsification of evidence were somehow linked to Enyalida's hidden reveal, but since the reveal of Tremula, that seems rather slim at the moment. It doesn't clear Synkarin completely, but odds are he's not scum.
Second, let's assume Sylandra is the culprit. This isn't too much of a stretch, really; we can't really verify she blocked Shaddus this night, so it's possible. I don't think it's likely though, given how the game has played so far.
Third, let's assume Shaddus is the culprit. This would basically mean that Sylandra is scum as well; otherwise, Shaddus would be blocked and would be unable to kill anyway. It's not entirely unreasonable to think there are two scum left though, so it's possible.
Fourth, myself. It's hard arguing about how I'd be scum, so I'll just point out why I'm not: First, the scum targetted me during night three (I think it was?), and almost killed me. That, by itself, should be ample evidence that I'm not scum. In addition, however, I also was an (admittedly passive) part of lynching Tarkenton, and a more active part of lynching Tremula. If I were scum, I'd have taken far more of a back seat on that, only voting when the numbers had started building up.
So where does that leave us? Frankly, I'm fairly certain Luce is scum, and if he is scum and we have a second, the second would basically have to be Sylandra, and I don't think she is scum, so I'm just going to go ahead and
As far as targets are concerned, Ssaliss is and has remained unconfirmable. I'm putting my money there, since everything he's said and done has to be taken on faith. Granted, aside from literally making myself unlynchable, so must mine. If there ARE more than one remaining mafia and Ssaliss is one, the other could still be Azureus or Shaddus, on an off-chance that he and his brother were not on the same side. The third possibility is that there are two scum and it's Azureus and Sylandra, but that seems really remote.
At this point, I'd like to hear from Shaddus to confirm he was blocked
I honestly think it's best to lynch Azureus, if he ends up flipping town, we can block Luce next, I bet his power is 'can only do once per person' or something, if he's scum, we can get Sylandra.
What I'm saying is it's entirely reasonable to think that the scum tried to kill someone else that failed, and you stepped forward and claimed that it was you and you were conveniently immune but only that one time, and you didn't know you had that super power until it happened.
The earlier attack is really hard to verify at this point. We know something happened, but we don't actually know who it involved. When the day was first starting, I even thought it was possible that someone had tried to kill Celina, since that was the night I sent her fortune. Though the violence of the message meant it didn't strike me as the strongest option.
But anyways, obviously scum aren't going to come forward to verify that they failed to kill Ssaliss. But if Ssaliss is scum, then obviously there wouldn't be anyone to counter-claim either. I'm not saying Ssaliss is suspicious, per se, only that the attack doesn't put them beyond suspicion. It's a non-starter.
The only people who might have helped been able to confirm it either way are already dead, and even if they weren't, they would have had to confirm it retroactively anyways, since we're talking about something that happened days ago. Still trying to go back and re-read the exact day to see if anyone else independently verified the attack, or if we just agreed it made sense at the time.
The big problem there is that claiming I was attacked when I wasn't would mean it'd be very likely the actual target of that attack would step foward and call me a liar, and at that point it'd be pretty much certain one (or both) of us would get lynched.
Allyrainne was ejected the night before Ssaliss's attack. While it's till possible that Ssaliss saw that power and made a claim that copied it, it seems less likely now, unless somehow we're misinterpereting several large pieces of information.
My main misgiving on putting more suspicion in Sylandra's direction now is that she lead the charge against Tremula, which the only off-chance I can see in this is that Tremula missed a night kill that should have been hers, and Sylandra threw her under a bus in order to protect herself by claiming she'd blocked her instead. However, that would be really unusual.
There's a little bit of meta going on here thay maybe Kira was more hesitant to eject Shu than Allyrainne's character because shu was a secret mafiate, but Shu was also called out in Ermine's announcement and I don't think Kira would be biased toward mafia like that. We've gotten one human and one chimaera so far in Ermine's fan-club, so while the odds wouldn't favour a second human being in it, it's not, theoretically out of the question, though I'll point out again that I and Synkarin are the only humans still mobile down here now, sheer probability and statistics dictate that it should have been a 2/3rds ratio or so.
So far the claimed roles, dead or alive are
@Ssaliss, Jailor who has only jailed himself by his own admission @Siam: Investigator-by-proxy. He's hit most of the currently living players, and his vision of Tremula proved that we unfortunately can't see alignment with that. @Sylandra, roleblocker Escort or consort are both roleblocking roles, but she's not blocked Siam more than one or two times (though see my previous comments on Siam) @Azureus, protector, whose role seems to function like a doctors, but is one-per-customer Me: Governer, proven twice, and Saran pointed out that I probably had no night actions @Synkarin: Mayor(ish), would have been nice if his vote power could have lasted longer than 1 day @Shaddus: mason with Ayisdra, not much else to say.
at least one of the above is scum, possibly two. If we lynch a townie today, mafia will hit tonight and it'll be 3:2 or 4:1 or they'll choose not to lynch to throw suspicion on me, since everyone is suspicious of me anyway and Sylandra is either a townie who believes I'm scum and wants to roleblock me, or a mafiate who knows I'm town and is trying to frame me. Or, actually, Sylandra could be one of two remaining mafia, mafia kills tonight, and then sylandra claims she blocked the other mafia instead, so we're at 3-2 and I get lynched...=/ Oh dear gods, this day is going to decide the game.
The two confirmed mafia are Tarkenton: lightning rod and 1 shot strongarm Tremula: consigliere and janitor
The town incapacitated or dead are: Riluna: Doctor Celina: Tracker, ish Saran: Lookout/tracker, ish Enyaalida: God only knows Ayisdra: Mason Allyrianne: Vig/1shot NK immune.
The above spiel is by no means an endorsement of a no-lynch, incidentally. If we don't lynch anyone today, I don't think we'd really get any more information from tonight.
The big problem there is that claiming I was attacked when I wasn't would mean it'd be very likely the actual target of that attack would step foward and call me a liar, and at that point it'd be pretty much certain one (or both) of us would get lynched.
Assuming they knew they were attacked at all, though. Which, to be fair, they might have! So yeah, you would have been putting yourself in danger without too much reason.
So yeah, I think the attack is too difficult to verify, but is there any other reason to be suspicious besides that? The aggression against Shaddus maybe?
I'll vote: No lynch for now, unless someone has a more firm reason to argue for lynching Ssaliss than has been given so far today. Not willing to vote for Siam, Sylandra, Synkarin or Shaddus without HEAVY convincing.
The above spiel is by no means an endorsement of a no-lynch, incidentally. If we don't lynch anyone today, I don't think we'd really get any more information from tonight.
A no-lynch today is basically tantamount to saying we still suspect you.
Do you have anyone else you'd like to turn the heat on?
Called it. FUCKING CALLED IT, but no, you people wouldn't believe me when I said he was acting scummy.
As for Sidd, I didn't get any night message at all. It would be kinda hard to block a mason anyway, and the fact that I had nobody to talk to makes it double hard.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Chatting with kira, my not getting a blocked message is her fault. I should have got one and didn't.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Ssaliss keeps making a role claim he can't technically prove. He's doing the same thing as claiming vanilla so we think he's harmless, but he's scummy.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
I was hoping I wouldn't have to reveal this, since it puts me in a rather delicate situation, but frankly, anything is better than just going back to the same old non-constructive discussions.
I was the one being attacked during the night.
Yes, I jailed myself. We already know I wasn't blocked. That leaves one option: The attacker used an attack that goes through protection. How do I know this, and not that the attack simply failed because I jailed myself? Because A) it doesn't fit with the pattern (I wasn't told Celina targetted me, nor have we seen any kind of sign of a fight during the other two nights). I survived because apparently, being the oldest, meanest, scariest chimaera also came with a one-shot nightkill protection that I wasn't even aware of. In hindsight, the fluff kinda hinted at it, from being an old bodyguard to being the first "monster-type" chimaera to being one of the oldest chimaera still alive (and I plan on continuing that trend). I very much doubt it will kick in a second time though, given how various things looked.
Of course, this means one of two things:
A) The scum have a way to bypass protection. Of course, if they had, then I'd expect them to have used it before now. Also, I probably wouldn't have been a prime target, since I am little to no threat to them at this point (yes, I can block people, but at this stage I'm more likely to target a friendly).
Someone else have a way to bypass protection. This, to me, seems the more likely scenario. Couple with the fact that this happened the very night after my argument with Shaddus, and Shaddus using some kind of night action on Ayisdra (I still don't buy that all they did was talk), I think it's very possible that Ayisdra has a night action that can only be used with the support of his brother (and, most likely, vice versa) and that it can kill through protection, and possibly even through detection (the attack was very stealthy).
This entire post is BS. One shot night kill avoidance that you weren't aware of? Puh-leaase. Two-pronged night action? Yeah, ok bro. I'm betting you're Kennan, if that's actually my brother's name, and you figured out who we were early on. That's why you've been riding me this whole time, some sort of hatred against your smaller, weaker brothers
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
The following are semi-unrelated shower thoughts, brought to you by Head & Shoulders.
So Sylandra. Could possibly have been the killer last night, actually. I'm reasonably convinced (I think others are too?) that Shaddus doesn't really have a night action to block to begin with, so Sylandra being preoccupied last night isn't all that verifiable. That would leave them able to kill in relative peace.
If that's the case, then my fortune last night was pretty much null; there's no other night power that could have targeted a scum-Sylandra that could have mattered. Already knew Siam wasn't going to be sending Sylandra a vision, and I don't think my power makes Siam unable to send a vision of my target. Even if it did, not sure a vision of Sylandra would really change anything. So in hypothetical scum-Sylandra reality, I don't regret my action.
But in that case, I should be dead, right? And it didn't even have to be something as attention-grabbing as Sylandra claiming there was no mongoose and then having to answer for when I flipped town; there were three votes on me already, so Sylandra could pretty easily just vote for me with narry any justification, end the day, and then still have a reasonable case for arguing innocence the next day. Killing me wouldn't have been all that attention grabbing. So why help keep me around?
To seem trustworthy, to make sure that I wouldn't be willing to vote against them? But again there's the Tremula factor: Sylandra didn't just vote for Tremula, didn't even just lead the charge on that particular day; Sylandra was downright aggressive towards Tremula -- like Ssaliss has been towards Shaddus; like Saran was towards me. Like, if I had been lynched yesterday, and flipped scum, I don't think anyone would be suspicious of Saran at this point. And Sylandra had been calling to lynch Tremula for multiple days!
Sure, in theory, this would make scum-Sylandra seem above reproach today. In fact today would be pretty much ideal for scum-Sylandra, having so many reasons to escape attention. But even in that case, it's been a veritable perfect storm of circumstance to lead to this day; sure, it's a high-reward scenario for scum-Sylandra, but the high-risk part of it has been so exceptionally high-risk that it's really, really hard for me to see the gamble possibly being worth taking at the time. Sylandra and Tremula working together while outnumbered feels like it would be way safer.
If Sylandra is scum, then Sylandra also has a serious love of risk and gambling. In which case internet poker would be a way more profitable use of time then forum mafia!
Comments
I'm smelling a change in the wind that I don't like, so to prove that A) I can still use it and
I've already stated that I have no night actions, whether or not I'm blocked, jailed, investigated, all that will happen is whomever does the blocking will have wasted that action. Mafia failing to attack notwithstanding, someone would die that night. I've also stated that work has been busy, so I haven't been able to immediately or quickly respond with regularity. Both the Tark and Tremula trains built up quickly. Note that I didn't lift a finger to protect Tremula once the lynch started either, though I could easily have done so.
Luce is unlynchable for the rest of the day.
Frankly, this does present an annoying situation though. Assuming you're the scum (which seems likely), and assuming you're the only scum left, it leaves us with the only choices being to either lynch a town, or lynch no one.
Quite frankly, I'm not sure where to go from here. It's obvious that Azureus didn't kill anyone this night, at least, nor did Siam, so those two are completely out. Luce is unlynchable. That leaves four possible lynches: Synkarin, Shaddus, Sylandra or myself.
First, let's assume Synkarin is the culprit. That'd mean that he'd also have the ability to falsify evidence, given the reveal during day... three? IIRC, it basically only said that "the computer says you haven't been anywhere near Ermine" or something to that effect, and as we saw the same night (I think?), computers can be messed with. For a while I toyed around with the idea that Synkarins falsification of evidence were somehow linked to Enyalida's hidden reveal, but since the reveal of Tremula, that seems rather slim at the moment. It doesn't clear Synkarin completely, but odds are he's not scum.
Second, let's assume Sylandra is the culprit. This isn't too much of a stretch, really; we can't really verify she blocked Shaddus this night, so it's possible. I don't think it's likely though, given how the game has played so far.
Third, let's assume Shaddus is the culprit. This would basically mean that Sylandra is scum as well; otherwise, Shaddus would be blocked and would be unable to kill anyway. It's not entirely unreasonable to think there are two scum left though, so it's possible.
Fourth, myself. It's hard arguing about how I'd be scum, so I'll just point out why I'm not: First, the scum targetted me during night three (I think it was?), and almost killed me. That, by itself, should be ample evidence that I'm not scum. In addition, however, I also was an (admittedly passive) part of lynching Tarkenton, and a more active part of lynching Tremula. If I were scum, I'd have taken far more of a back seat on that, only voting when the numbers had started building up.
So where does that leave us? Frankly, I'm fairly certain Luce is scum, and if he is scum and we have a second, the second would basically have to be Sylandra, and I don't think she is scum, so I'm just going to go ahead and
Vote: No one dies
As far as targets are concerned, Ssaliss is and has remained unconfirmable. I'm putting my money there, since everything he's said and done has to be taken on faith. Granted, aside from literally making myself unlynchable, so must mine. If there ARE more than one remaining mafia and Ssaliss is one, the other could still be Azureus or Shaddus, on an off-chance that he and his brother were not on the same side. The third possibility is that there are two scum and it's Azureus and Sylandra, but that seems really remote.
Vote: Ssaliss
But anyways, obviously scum aren't going to come forward to verify that they failed to kill Ssaliss. But if Ssaliss is scum, then obviously there wouldn't be anyone to counter-claim either. I'm not saying Ssaliss is suspicious, per se, only that the attack doesn't put them beyond suspicion. It's a non-starter.
The only people who might have helped been able to confirm it either way are already dead, and even if they weren't, they would have had to confirm it retroactively anyways, since we're talking about something that happened days ago. Still trying to go back and re-read the exact day to see if anyone else independently verified the attack, or if we just agreed it made sense at the time.
developing a theory
http://forums.lusternia.com/discussion/comment/102415/#Comment_102415
My main misgiving on putting more suspicion in Sylandra's direction now is that she lead the charge against Tremula, which the only off-chance I can see in this is that Tremula missed a night kill that should have been hers, and Sylandra threw her under a bus in order to protect herself by claiming she'd blocked her instead. However, that would be really unusual.
There's a little bit of meta going on here thay maybe Kira was more hesitant to eject Shu than Allyrainne's character because shu was a secret mafiate, but Shu was also called out in Ermine's announcement and I don't think Kira would be biased toward mafia like that. We've gotten one human and one chimaera so far in Ermine's fan-club, so while the odds wouldn't favour a second human being in it, it's not, theoretically out of the question, though I'll point out again that I and Synkarin are the only humans still mobile down here now, sheer probability and statistics dictate that it should have been a 2/3rds ratio or so.
So far the claimed roles, dead or alive are
@Ssaliss, Jailor who has only jailed himself by his own admission
@Siam: Investigator-by-proxy. He's hit most of the currently living players, and his vision of Tremula proved that we unfortunately can't see alignment with that.
@Sylandra, roleblocker Escort or consort are both roleblocking roles, but she's not blocked Siam more than one or two times (though see my previous comments on Siam)
@Azureus, protector, whose role seems to function like a doctors, but is one-per-customer
Me: Governer, proven twice, and Saran pointed out that I probably had no night actions
@Synkarin: Mayor(ish), would have been nice if his vote power could have lasted longer than 1 day
@Shaddus: mason with Ayisdra, not much else to say.
at least one of the above is scum, possibly two. If we lynch a townie today, mafia will hit tonight and it'll be 3:2 or 4:1 or they'll choose not to lynch to throw suspicion on me, since everyone is suspicious of me anyway and Sylandra is either a townie who believes I'm scum and wants to roleblock me, or a mafiate who knows I'm town and is trying to frame me. Or, actually, Sylandra could be one of two remaining mafia, mafia kills tonight, and then sylandra claims she blocked the other mafia instead, so we're at 3-2 and I get lynched...=/ Oh dear gods, this day is going to decide the game.
The two confirmed mafia are
Tarkenton: lightning rod and 1 shot strongarm
Tremula: consigliere and janitor
The town incapacitated or dead are:
Riluna: Doctor
Celina: Tracker, ish
Saran: Lookout/tracker, ish
Enyaalida: God only knows
Ayisdra: Mason
Allyrianne: Vig/1shot NK immune.
So yeah, I think the attack is too difficult to verify, but is there any other reason to be suspicious besides that? The aggression against Shaddus maybe?
I'll vote: No lynch for now, unless someone has a more firm reason to argue for lynching Ssaliss than has been given so far today. Not willing to vote for Siam, Sylandra, Synkarin or Shaddus without HEAVY convincing.
Do you have anyone else you'd like to turn the heat on?
Called it. FUCKING CALLED IT, but no, you people wouldn't believe me when I said he was acting scummy.
As for Sidd, I didn't get any night message at all. It would be kinda hard to block a mason anyway, and the fact that I had nobody to talk to makes it double hard.
So Sylandra. Could possibly have been the killer last night, actually. I'm reasonably convinced (I think others are too?) that Shaddus doesn't really have a night action to block to begin with, so Sylandra being preoccupied last night isn't all that verifiable. That would leave them able to kill in relative peace.
If that's the case, then my fortune last night was pretty much null; there's no other night power that could have targeted a scum-Sylandra that could have mattered. Already knew Siam wasn't going to be sending Sylandra a vision, and I don't think my power makes Siam unable to send a vision of my target. Even if it did, not sure a vision of Sylandra would really change anything. So in hypothetical scum-Sylandra reality, I don't regret my action.
But in that case, I should be dead, right? And it didn't even have to be something as attention-grabbing as Sylandra claiming there was no mongoose and then having to answer for when I flipped town; there were three votes on me already, so Sylandra could pretty easily just vote for me with narry any justification, end the day, and then still have a reasonable case for arguing innocence the next day. Killing me wouldn't have been all that attention grabbing. So why help keep me around?
To seem trustworthy, to make sure that I wouldn't be willing to vote against them? But again there's the Tremula factor: Sylandra didn't just vote for Tremula, didn't even just lead the charge on that particular day; Sylandra was downright aggressive towards Tremula -- like Ssaliss has been towards Shaddus; like Saran was towards me. Like, if I had been lynched yesterday, and flipped scum, I don't think anyone would be suspicious of Saran at this point. And Sylandra had been calling to lynch Tremula for multiple days!
Sure, in theory, this would make scum-Sylandra seem above reproach today. In fact today would be pretty much ideal for scum-Sylandra, having so many reasons to escape attention. But even in that case, it's been a veritable perfect storm of circumstance to lead to this day; sure, it's a high-reward scenario for scum-Sylandra, but the high-risk part of it has been so exceptionally high-risk that it's really, really hard for me to see the gamble possibly being worth taking at the time. Sylandra and Tremula working together while outnumbered feels like it would be way safer.
If Sylandra is scum, then Sylandra also has a serious love of risk and gambling. In which case internet poker would be a way more profitable use of time then forum mafia!