Powers give individuals information, not town. We're still completely blind because of the no-lynch.
And yes, luck can negate the equation. But there is no room in strategy for luck. We need an actual strategy to deliberately win. We should not be hoping we get lucky enough to win.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
"Yes, we might accidentally kill a power role but we might accidentally kill a scum too."
Looking around, day one no lynches appear to be considering actually rather harmful to the town.
Relying on power roles to generate information is extremely dangerous as it requires those power roles to not only survive but also out themselves(if your investigator reveals one scum its pointless, but if they wait to investigate everyone then they might die before doing anything), also if arguments and bandwagons don't form then those power roles are effectively just randomly picking people to target without decent information.
And the bandwagon is really important, it is one of the most visible aspects of the game that the town can use to find scum.
For example, given that no lynching on day one can heavily benefit the scum (little chance of them dying, they can remain covert as they can kill in the night without having to also participate in lynching townies) and Celina's on-going defense of this tactic.
Vote: Celina
Anyone that tries to convince the town that it's a good idea to not use their lynches (except in the case that there is an actual pressing reason to hold off the vote) is immediately scummy to me and I'd be tempted to look at those on that first bandwagon, sure some might have thought it was a good idea but there's also the likelihood that the scum are in that group because it helps them.
Oh, a side note. Not lynching would also help bring this game to an even number and that apparently favours the scum further.
I feel like both Saran and Riluna are just trying to generate basic chaos rather than an actual strategy to root out evil-doers
You know what's better than mis-lynching? Getting the lynch target right. Each correct target extends our chances for victory compared to each mis-lynch just assisting Ermine's escape.
Sowing chaos is exactly what an agent of Ermine would be doing, and why Saran would sit there and say not lynching benefits Ermine's crew, it doesn't benefit them as much as mis-lynching.
Saran and Riluna seem really scummy to me.
Vote: Saran
because voting for the person wanting to prevent mis-lynches is really odd
Thank you, @Saran. The rest of you can just as easily look it up for yourselves, if you just don't believe me. Google it, and I promise you will not find a single sustainable argument about why a Day 1 no-lynch is in any way a good idea.
Celina's active resistance against it is harmful, at best, to those of us that do not want ermine to win. That is far better than a random lynch.
Vote: Celina
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
I'm just a little confused by the way things are running, and it's throwing me off posting. That and I've been uber busy. Should we be mostly trying to RP, or mostly talking game theory?
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
0
Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
I'm pretty confident Riluna isn't scum, just bad at the game. I don't require google to come to informed decisions about RNG, fortunately for me. She's talking in circles and her own argument contradict themselves. See: the comments about not relying on luck but we should lynch day 0 because luck. I wish she was scum, because then we could get rid of obstructionists without hurting outselves, but I do think she genuinely believes the math she's posting and ignoring the context of the entire game. For whatever reason.
Then again, I've had chainsaws to the face and explodey powers that activate on lynch, so color me cautious when it comes to not wanting to shoot ourselves in the foot because Riluna found something on google. One of the quirks of this type of game is you never know what powers will show up. Basically arguing the rationality of different types of blind gambles at this point, but at least some of us have the wherewithal to recognize the absurdity of that type of argument.
Were this a simple numbers game, it would be that simple. This is not a simple numbers game, as anyone who has played these games frequently knows, and leave us up the shit creek without the proverbial paddle.
Saran, however, I don't know. I feel like a vote for Saran would be reactionary on my part right now. If Saran's own argument holds true, he's very much jumping on Riluna's bandwagon, which makes him suspect. Which is weird to me that he didn't catch that in his own post.
0
Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
I would add that the underlying math that is being pushed also relies on the unkown variables not undermining the entire premise, which we know they can very much do. Layering random decisions and calling it a strategy is silly, but maybe that's just me.
The good news is that the conversation is at least drawing information out, for better or worse.
@Synkarin that's fine, should the scum succeed in lynching me then the town finds that I am on the side of the town, this then validates my words as a member of the town and in turn moves the gaze towards yourself and Celina who argue against the town doing anything.
Synkarin and Celina seem set on hiding in the shadows, not doing anything while the enemy picks us off one by one.
Yes, some of us are going to die, there will be town members lynched by the town. However, it is not just the town that votes in a lynch, the mafia do to. We need to catch them, we need talk and voting that we can see.
Synkarin has taken the view that lynching is bloodthirsty, that it is a negative action the town takes. However, the threat of a lynch on Celina has made him jump out and vote to lynch me. To lynch someone who does not agree with their "strategy", which let's be honest is a common scum strategy.
I'm pretty confident Riluna isn't scum, just bad at the game. I don't require google to come to informed decisions about RNG, fortunately for me. She's talking in circles and her own argument contradict themselves. See: the comments about not relying on luck but we should lynch day 0 because luck. I wish she was scum, because then we could get rid of obstructionists without hurting outselves, but I do think she genuinely believes the math she's posting and ignoring the context of the entire game. For whatever reason.
Then again, I've had chainsaws to the face and explodey powers that activate on lynch, so color me cautious when it comes to not wanting to shoot ourselves in the foot because Riluna found something on google. One of the quirks of this type of game is you never know what powers will show up. Basically arguing the rationality of different types of blind gambles at this point, but at least some of us have the wherewithal to recognize the absurdity of that type of argument.
Were this a simple numbers game, it would be that simple. This is not a simple numbers game, as anyone who has played these games frequently knows, and leave us up the shit creek without the proverbial paddle.
Saran, however, I don't know. I feel like a vote for Saran would be reactionary on my part right now. If Saran's own argument holds true, he's very much jumping on Riluna's bandwagon, which makes him suspect. Which is weird to me that he didn't catch that in his own post.
All I really want to add right now to this is 'bad at the game'?
Now we all have a lot more to talk about than random flavor bullshit, and you can all think for yourselves.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
0
Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Look at all my shadowy hiding as I post a lot. I think I'm doing it wrong.
One of the more harmful plays is when a person behaves in an irrational manner, people react to the irrationality, and then the person implies (or outright states) that should they happen to be right, it validates everything they said. It doesn't.
I don't think Saran is scum either at this point, I think Saran is rising to Riluna's overdramatics. I'd be more inclined to try and lynch one of the quiet people if we are going to lynch someone.
1
Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Should I not call it a game? Are we RPing this out? I feel like that could get awkward. I don't know how to RP anything but a griefy murderer, which could spell my doom in this type of game.
The thing is, Riluna, that any 'random flavor bullshit' could be not random. In a game where -anything- could be a power activating (although I would think any power activation would require it to be bold, or so I would hope...).
Sure, we there is there is some rp to our roles. Does this mean that the scum are connected in some way? who knows. We won't until we kill at least two. It could be that the roles are nothing but flavor, but we won't know that without deaths happening.
On the topic of quiet people - @Xeria hasn't really done anything besides 'being scared and confused' from my knowledge of her few posts. If she made more, it just shows how not big they were.
The thing is, Riluna, that any 'random flavor bullshit' could be not random. In a game where -anything- could be a power activating (although I would think any power activation would require it to be bold, or so I would hope...).
Sure, we there is there is some rp to our roles. Does this mean that the scum are connected in some way? who knows. We won't until we kill at least two. It could be that the roles are nothing but flavor, but we won't know that without deaths happening.
On the topic of quiet people - @Xeria hasn't really done anything besides 'being scared and confused' from my knowledge of her few posts. If she made more, it just shows how not big they were.
Perhaps, but I think the risk is far greater of outing our own power roles through actually pursuing that line of thought, and really not worth it. That's more worrisome to me than outing scum with it on the chance that we do find information with it. Whoever we have is good, and I am against outing them until they think it is worth it. Because that is the only way they will survive long enough to decide.
Really, "no-lynch D1 is stupid" is mafia 101. Please look it up.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
Is the point to poke holes in the logic of people who argued for/against doing so, with the understanding that having bad/good logic is the scum/town deciding factor?
Is the point to poke holes in the logic of people who argued for/against doing so, with the understanding that having bad/good logic is the scum/town deciding factor?
The point is to try to understand why no-lynching is ever a good idea (hint: it's not right now), and take a good, hard look at those who are trying to convince you it is.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
I'm confused why we're still talking about if it was a good or bad idea to not lynch anyone yesterday.
I think we're talking about that because people think the no-lynch votes yesterday will remain no-lynch votes today.
Which isn't necessarily true. We do, collectively, have more information now than we did then, because by this point there's been opportunities for power usage. The people with powers probably aren't going to out themselves right now, but it will still influence their decisions. We aren't fully blind now like we were then; we might still be guessing but it is no longer pure random chance.
As for my posting activity, I'd hoped it was clear that I was posting a fair amount when I had new things to say, but after a certain point there wasn't a lot of value in repeating myself.
@Celina, yes. I support her argument, though it is not necessarily her argument but apparently common wisdom of games such as these. There's even comments about how if a group of players "no lynch" on day one consistently then they should start with even numbers because of how it can negatively impact the game for the town.
For me... well if you lynch me the town loses someone, but they also know that everything I've said comes from the point of view of someone trying to help the town win.
Yes, lynching someone removes them from the game, but it's also the only time we have real proof of who they are.
Just realized my vote yesterday probably didn't count either. A whole slew of no-lynch votes yesterday meant mine was vote 9 of 8. Azureus was vote 10, after the announcement even, and I don't know that he's posted much today, either.
Both Celina and Riluna have been at each other on both days, and those two feel like far and away the most active out of us, though it feels like part of it is that today is a continuation of yesterday.
By sitting here and saying 'lets randomly lynch based off hunches about who has said what and then judge who votes for/against etc', you're pretty much setting us up for failure. You're telling the scum to be careful about jumping on the lynch bandwagon otherwise they may be given away and you're telling the town to be really careful about agreeing to randomly lynch because to do so may incriminate them wrongly and open them up to unwanted scrutiny.
You can throw all the math in the world at the problem and sit here and say 'hey by lynching people, we increase the odds of lynching the right person next time' which is factually correct, because less people means higher percentage of scum, but you're still lynching good guys.
So my vote stands, I think Saran is the shadier of the two (RIluna/Saran) so if you guys are so gungho to lynch, lets do it. Anyone can sit here and say 'well, when it turns out you're wrong, you'll be next!' and everything you said 'for the good of the town' doesn't matter anymore when you're dead.
@Synkarin, you're the one setting up the town for failure here. This is mafia, there is no such thing as knowledge, this entire game is about hunches seeing how those play out and reacting appropriately.
Gods, there have even been times where there have been near lynches for no greater reason then to pressure people to speak.
Unvote
Vote: Synkarin
Even if you're not scum, your viewpoint is actively dangerous to the town. Encouraging people to not act, to not engage with each other and instead wait for some mythological point where those with powers will come and save us all from having to actually do the work during the day will only result in the death of the town.
I believe it is three people currently who are suggesting that we should wait for this time? We don't know if there even is a role that could help with that, the town very much do not want to know if someone has such a role for that persons safety. At the same time we cannot rely on such a role existing, if they can help out when we need them then that's awesome, but there is every possibility that tomorrow night they'll turn up dead, potentially for no better reason than the mafia rolled some dice.
And even if someone claimed the cop role towards the end of the game, we will never know if they were actually the cop until they die nor if they're even sane. We have no knowledge about the number of scum, nor the roles that exist in this game.
Yet you propose that we simply wait, patiently biding our time while the scum kill us off one by one.
Would you like the simple reason for why I am not scum?
Why the frack would I be pushing people to lynch and be active during the day? If I simply nodded and agreed with this flawed reasoning then there would be the simple matter of killing the town off one by one at night. There is quite simply no reason for the scum to want lynchings to occur if they can convince the town that such is inherently negative, by convincing the town to wait the mafia can secure in their win, as they have no danger of dying given the only way they can die is through a lynch.
It's interesting, Celina who I actually voted for did not vote for me. And Synkarin well, vague posting about not wanting to vote for anyone, followed up fairly shortly by voting for someone who calls him out on this shady behaviour labeling voting for him as bloodthirsty? Which... let's be honest, the town should be bloodthirsty, the scum are the ones who don't have to kill during the day, while the only time my team can try to win the game is during the day. Lynching is our only guaranteed tool in any game.
How is wanting to protect the town members from being chosen at random to lynch 'setting us up for failure' and 'actively dangerous to the town'?
That's really your point? He's being dangerous because he doesn't want to lynch other town members?
The scum want nothing more than for us to throw away our own, because it helps them much more in the long run than it helps us. Your logic here is based purely on the idea that you can gleam accurate information by randomly throwing away lives. And you want to gleam this information by telling the scum exactly what you're looking for, giving them all the evidence and ammo they need to dance around your accusations.
I get that we need to lynch, it's the only way we'll realistically take down the scum. I'm not down to lynch people at random, which is why I'm down to lynch you, because you clearly are, which I take as a clearly scummy move. Maybe you're just misguided, maybe you are a townie at heart, but given the same reasons you keep using against me, you're clearly dangerous to the rest of the town.
Incorrect, I'm saying we should be afraid to vote town out of the game
See the difference? The only people who benefit from us lynching a town member IS the scum.
For instance Riluna, why wouldn't a scum member jump on board with you and push for the lynch? It removes suspicion from them by agreeing with you, if it ends up lynching a town member, they benefit from said town being gone, if it ends up lynching another scum, it removes them even further from suspicion because they pushed for it. It's a win-win situation for them. Hence, why I think we should be lynching Saran if anyone. We could lynch a quiet person, but that's rolling the dice pretty hard core.
Comments
Synkarin and Celina seem set on hiding in the shadows, not doing anything while the enemy picks us off one by one.
Yes, some of us are going to die, there will be town members lynched by the town. However, it is not just the town that votes in a lynch, the mafia do to. We need to catch them, we need talk and voting that we can see.
Synkarin has taken the view that lynching is bloodthirsty, that it is a negative action the town takes. However, the threat of a lynch on Celina has made him jump out and vote to lynch me. To lynch someone who does not agree with their "strategy", which let's be honest is a common scum strategy.
Now we all have a lot more to talk about than random flavor bullshit, and you can all think for yourselves.
Sure, we there is there is some rp to our roles. Does this mean that the scum are connected in some way? who knows. We won't until we kill at least two. It could be that the roles are nothing but flavor, but we won't know that without deaths happening.
On the topic of quiet people - @Xeria hasn't really done anything besides 'being scared and confused' from my knowledge of her few posts. If she made more, it just shows how not big they were.
Which isn't necessarily true. We do, collectively, have more information now than we did then, because by this point there's been opportunities for power usage. The people with powers probably aren't going to out themselves right now, but it will still influence their decisions. We aren't fully blind now like we were then; we might still be guessing but it is no longer pure random chance.
As for my posting activity, I'd hoped it was clear that I was posting a fair amount when I had new things to say, but after a certain point there wasn't a lot of value in repeating myself.
For me... well if you lynch me the town loses someone, but they also know that everything I've said comes from the point of view of someone trying to help the town win.
Yes, lynching someone removes them from the game, but it's also the only time we have real proof of who they are.
Both Celina and Riluna have been at each other on both days, and those two feel like far and away the most active out of us, though it feels like part of it is that today is a continuation of yesterday.