Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Basically I don't believe drawing assumptions about the odds, based on how these Lusternia mafia games play out, and making gambles on assumed odds is a particular informed way to proceed. It's...well...presumptive.
Wait, so besides being mad at people for not wanting to lynch, who are Riluna and Saran advocating we lynch? Just the people who don't want to lynch?
Yes, that's basically the strategy. I think the reasoning is that she's so convinced by whatever articles/forums/whatever she's reading on the interwebz that no lynching is always a scummy move that anyone who votes to no lynch day 0 is 1) scum who understands and agrees with her position or 2) oblivious and deserves to die because they are hurting us all.
For @Enyalida, it's not simply people that don't want to lynch, it's people actively characterizing that decision as bad and wanting the town to sit on its hands until we somehow have knowledge that will fix everything for us rather than having the town work towards a win.
@Celina for me... pretty much, except that there is a wide variety of logic behind those arguments. What's most disturbing is when people continuously and repeatedly ignore that logic, one of the major issues in this particular game is that we don't know if there are power roles at all.
Like... let's honestly think about the strategy Synkarin is proposing, we're going to wait patiently, day by day not lynching anyone, not inciting people to defend themselves or talk... just waiting until someone role claims. then once we have more than a "hunch" we're going to act on that role claim?
With @Ssaliss's guess we have six nights at best before the town is at lynch or lose, six nights of those with powers (who may not exist), to investigate and try to find someone, then convince what remains of the town to believe them, and lets not forget, six nights of death for the town and the scum will never nightkill a member of the mafia.
And honestly, I'm not seeing any real compelling arguments as to why we shouldn't lynch, what's making it so very sus is now less the action of no lynching on day one, there is a consistent defense of that action. People can start directing their attention at the quiet people, but seriously just actually do something waiting for an investigator is waiting to die.
No, it's bad because the information you're relying on in a no lynch is not information the group as a whole can rely on. It's extremely foolish to be content to just sit back and wait for information-gathering power roles to reveal their hand and save the day.
Lynching is the only way we actually ever have solid, concrete evidence as a whole. Something actually tangible to work off of.
Lynching is also the only possible way we have of eliminating scum.
None of the arguments raised against it in this thread are sustainable, and they're obviously debunked by more than just me. Hoping power roles save the day is just stupid, and we don't know that this game is power-role heavy. I haven't seen anything to suggest it is.
Some people are actually trying to find scum, while some are trying to dispute basic facts. There really are good reasons to no-lynch. Day 1 is never one of them. We need to be finding scum the only way we can, by lynching them.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
As a final postscript, we will never be absolutely certain anybody is town or mafia or something else until they are actually dead. Allowing the fear of that to overwhelm what little advantage we have is extremely unwise.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
This is silly. You've basically stated you are all but convinced that Sidd and I are scum, but now you're saying you had no information to base that decision off of because, by your own argument, it didn't involve a lynch so it's not real info. Hubbawha?
Like I said, you don't even buy your own argument.
Then again, no one said to rely solely on power roles for information or actions, you just keep jumping to that conclusions, so I suspect you aren't actually reading anything at this point.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
OR are you also saying a no lynch provides discussion, bandwagons and information just like a lynch does. HMMM. WEIRD.
OR are you also saying a no lynch provides discussion, bandwagons and information just like a lynch does. HMMM. WEIRD.
All of this, with absolutely zero solid, concrete evidence to truly analyze it with. We could have had some already.
We're all shooting in the dark. Why the hell not shoot somebody who's putting so much effort trying to convince people the best way to win the game is to sit on your ass and dream for some big, strong cop to come save you.
We need actual effort on finding scum, not trying to find excuses to obstruct it.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Because no one advocated for sole reliance on powers to win the game, and you're just being arbitrary and obtuse at this point by repeating it.
ANYWHO, this could go in an endless circle. The options before us are lynch a quiet person as a possible mafia letting the town destroy itself, lynch Saran by Saran's own reasoning regarding bandwagons, or lynch Synkarin (or me apparently) for pushing a no lynch on the first day.
My suggestion is for the quiet person. I'm not entirely opposed to Saran. I am opposed to lynching Riluna.
Not for pushing for a no lynch on the first day, precisely.
I'm going to try to make this simple, and very clear.
Assuming that anyone on a D1 no-lynch is automatically scummy is just as stupid as the no-lynch itself.
What is actually scummy is putting so much effort into making it seem like it's a good idea to both limit the information we receive (which is exactly what you're doing) and to reduce our chances to actually kill scum by one.
Your insistence that we do have information through night actions is absolutely advocating waiting on that information to come save you. We do not have any information.
For the town to win, we need as much information as we can get.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
The only information that's being limited is whatever role the person lynched actually is
You're not limiting information by not lynching, you're also not revealing information about anyone by not lynching.
I agree we need as much information as we can get, I disagree that lynching people on a hunch is a great way for the town to win.
I have plenty of information, I know that you Riluna think you are some sage of mafia gameplay that should be taken at face value. I also know you could possibly be scum, by your own admission. Sure, there's a chance to get a scum (and I'm still on Saran being scum here, for reasons stated earlier) but it's so slight, I don't think risking a town is the way to go
Sure, we'll know said town's role, but in the end does that -really- help us make things clearer in the long run? I don't know that it does
It absolutely does. It's the ONLY THING WE HAVE that makes things at all clearer, besides waiting on a power role to do it for you.
None of us can trust each other's arguments, because only scum actually know somebody's motivations, until we see a flip. Then we have public, indisputable knowledge of their alignment. This allows us to paint a much clearer picture of who was attacking who, and why. Getting this information on a lynch is far superior than the exact same information from a mafia kill, because the mafia can discriminate, and minimize the information revealed more easily.
If you do not know who the scum are, then you do not have enough information.
I'm not trying to sound like some pompous mafia sage, but I am trying to make it clear to you that I'm not pulling this out of my ass. I have played enough to know it's common sense. I feel like I'm in kindergarten mafia, because everything I've argued Day 2 is not my argument. This really is very basic mafia, among those who like playing a lot of mafia and thus clearly have some idea what they're doing.
Part of me is extremely worried that we're arguing just because we like arguing with each other. But even so, arguing against getting more information the town can use is extremely destructive to town's ability to actually get more information.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
I feel like Riluna is using her knowledge of other mafia games here. Mafia games here are not like other games. Normally, there are many power roles. That a completely, powerless, townie is a rare thing in Lusternia mafia games (to my memory anyways).
When you have had townies with the power to kill someone else on their lynch (as Celina said she played before), or a mafia with a one time day-kill power (a role I have played before on a past game on these forums), any sort of 'basic mafia' goes out the window rather quickly in most cases.
Alternately, pushing more people to not post muddies the water as far as 'quiet people are scummy' is considered.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Here's a perspective:
Riluna has played so many mafia games that she knows day 1 lynch has to happen. Town agrees to go along with it.
Riluna votes for Sidd.
Celina, Shaddus, Siam, Ssaliss, also agree to lynch Sidd without any protest or discussion, because they also read the same thread on Mafia.com/howtowin.
Sidd is lynched but Sidd is a townie, the most probable scenario. Riluna is immediately incriminated, along with Celina, Shaddus, Siam, and Ssaliss. The Mafia did not vote because they read the same website. Mafia kills Riluna. Town is left with 4 people who joined Riluna's bandwagon with no way to distinguish between them.
No information gained from the bandwagon that assists the town. Is it realistic to assume the town will look to those who didn't vote before those who did and have a successful lynch day 2? That would be fairly irrational.
Here's the problem with prefabricated theory crafting and processes in a game with an impossible number of variables (literally impossible, Kiradawea could have given us anything): if everyone's playing by the same instructions, it's really easy to manipulate because the players like Riluna have given the handbook they are following to everyone up front. The mafia benefits because they are less likely to be lynched by chance on day 0 due to numbers, and are less influenced by these unknown variables due to lower probability of being targeted and the requirement that in order to turn information gained through powers into a lynch, the townie generally has to out themselves.
It's simply not as black and white as some are making it out to be, especially not when someone is handing out the play book.
I feel like Riluna is using her knowledge of other mafia games here. Mafia games here are not like other games. Normally, there are many power roles. That a completely, powerless, townie is a rare thing in Lusternia mafia games (to my memory anyways).
When you have had townies with the power to kill someone else on their lynch (as Celina said she played before), or a mafia with a one time day-kill power (a role I have played before on a past game on these forums), any sort of 'basic mafia' goes out the window rather quickly in most cases.
It's still quite relevant, because even in a game that does have a lot of power roles (I've played those, too), pushing for not-lynching is still terrible strategy. It makes the game a lot harder for us to play knowledgeably, and makes it a lot easier for scum to simply sit by in the shadows, as has been observed.
The sooner we are no longer shooting entirely in the dark, the better!
And I really don't understand why anyone is so sure this game is power intensive, anyway, just because other games have been. There's nothing safe about operating under the assumption it is, and they can still collect their information and let the town collect more, too, even if they're here.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Because your entire perspective is based around probabilities and most likely scenarios, without that you literally have nothing. We're giving you a most likely scenario, based on a pretty healthy history of Lusternian mafias.
Here's the problem with prefabricated theory crafting and processes in a game with an impossible number of variables (literally impossible, Kiradawea could have given us anything): if everyone's playing by the same instructions, it's really easy to manipulate because the players like Riluna have given the handbook they are following to everyone up front. The mafia benefits because they are less likely to be lynched by chance on day 0 due to numbers, and are less influenced by these unknown variables due to lower probability of being targeted and the requirement that in order to turn information gained through powers into a lynch, the townie generally has to out themselves.
It's simply not as black and white as some are making it out to be, especially not when someone is handing out the play book.
Knowing this how the hell does it make sense to you to argue, in any way, against being a lot more active about finding what we actually need to win?
Even in your scenario, it's still ideal for town. Sure, I'm incriminated, but you're sure I'm town, remember? My motivations are obvious to your superior reads, because you already know my alignment.
Sidd flipping town turns all this "crazy" speculation into actual, indisputable answers.The investigation needs to follow from that, because that is the only way vanilla townies can investigate. And people continue to think about it because you're right, it's never black and white. Sidd flipping town no longer gives us "ifs" and "maybes", which are never going to do us any good. It becomes an actual foundation for an actual case.
Of course we're going to investigate all of this, and even if suspicion does fall back on my poor, obviously innocent self than my flip, though tragic, will allow town to investigate even further. There's still plenty of room to find scum, and a lot more ammunition to actually do it.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Side note: I'm going to run a drag queen themed mafia next game.
How does you or me flipping one way or the other lay any foundation for anyone else being solidly one side or the other?
That's the draw, it doesn't, you don't really have all that solid of a case by lynching someone based off hunches. Me flipping town doesn't give you any 'actual' foundation because for all you know, scum sat out while town voted against, or more likely some voted and some didn't. All you know is you killed an innocent person and have a slightly better chance of lynching scum next round.
Consider the scenario again in an environment where we are trying to actively encourage each other to suspect and point fingers and kill, rather than hiding in fear from our responsibility by not doing the dirty work (like your argument proposes is ideal).
It becomes a lot more realistic to understand where you can get leads on people's actual motivations, when you actually do know the motivations of a part of a more active lobby for the lynch.
Would you understand how to look into it if the first target actually turned up scum, instead? That it is easier to understand why people were defending such a person?
I'm not trying to tell you that lynching a town is ideal. It sucks, absolutely. Nor am I trying to tell you I have a magical solution that is a guaranteed win for town. I am desperately trying to tell you that it is the only way town does find scum for themselves. We need to be trying to actually find them.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
I agree we need to trying to actually find them, I disagree on the 'well they're speaking contrary, so they -must- be scum'
There's a reason why I'm going with Saran and not you, because your premise would be great for a scum to latch on to (which is what he did). I don't think we need to be encouraged to find the scum, but pointing fingers at this point just ends up with innocent people dead and no real leads.
@Tarkenton: RUDE!!!! (it's my birthday and I left my laptop charger at my mate's last night, this is the first I'm able to get on the forums. My bad. )
I don't really have anything worthwhile to contribute at present. I'm trying to listen to the arguments presented, because each person convinced for the current lynching attempts (I might be wrong, but I think Celina, Synkarin, and I all have a vote? [Vote Tarkenton, too, then we'll have all the PK'ers under suspicion]) is another point for or against them. So far, I'm of the mind that Riluna is going a bit crazy with the power play on random lynching, Saran believes her maths, Tarkenton is bored, and Celina is impatiently waiting for the drag queen mafia.
Could be wrong, I only skimmed the last page. Trying not to wine my way into Gaudiguch tonight (21 BITCHES, I BOUGHT SO MUCH ALCOHOL).
But we're also not giving ourselves anything to actually find scum by no-lynching. When lynching somebody could lead to information.
Really, "not lynching somebody innocent" is not this monumental error you're making it out to be. It's not ideal, of course. But it's not like it's some cosmic mistake.
What my maths were trying to tell you is not a "probability formula" for victory. It is actual proof that no-lynching causes us to lose the numbers to make that exact same mistake anyway. How is that not more terrifying? We can make three mistakes and still win. (My maths only showed the fourth is the loss).
When we no-lynch, the third mistake is now failure. We lose the mistake anyway.
Mayor Steingrim, the Grand Schema says to you, "Well, as I recall you kinda leave a mark whereever you go."
@Celina and @Synkarin as I've said before if I were scum I'd be joining your bandwagon and inciting fear of what could happen if you lynch someone. Though to be honest I probably wouldn't have tried invoking the fear of a lynch redirection power.
And yet again Synkarin makes his little comments about not pointing fingers, of being afraid of someone ever dying. The same line he's been pushing all game.
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Cyndarinused Flamethrower! It was super effective.
Comments
When you have had townies with the power to kill someone else on their lynch (as Celina said she played before), or a mafia with a one time day-kill power (a role I have played before on a past game on these forums), any sort of 'basic mafia' goes out the window rather quickly in most cases.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."