the Expedition - a Pokémon Mafia game. (GAME OVER. SYLANDRA WINS. TOWN WINS.)

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  • Anyways, I'm not sure that Vivet's second hypothesis works. The crystal 7 showed up *yesterday*. Shouldn't it have said 8 if it was counting down to the end of the journey?

    The first one doesn't quite feel right either, but I think it's more likely than the second. Which is scary. Half of us are baddies, yet we've killed so many.

    The bruising around her neck seems to indicate that Kaimanahi was strangled... I don't think we've seen that MO before. And now that I think on it, didn't Luce die yesterday by just plain disappearing? "We don't know how, he's just gone," is what Alec said. That's two different kill methods that haven't been seen before.

    Maybe last night was just the scum kill and they can change methods somehow, but I'm beginning to worry that there's still more than one killer left on the train.
  • PhoebusPhoebus tu fui, ego eris. Circumstances
    No clue on the 7 thing. Unless you need sappy train romance updates, I've not got much to offer. That's what my nights are made of these days. I don't know how Othero and I have time to do our jobs properly when we're so preoccupied with this ill-advised smooch drama; I've done a complete 180 from career-oriented, capable woman to swooning imbecile. You bring a guy back from the brink of death and get told to kiss him by a random stranger on a murder train, and suddenly it's all you can think about anymore. 8-| This is an unhealthy foundation for a relationship.
  • Seriously... We can dial back on the faux romance novel please.
  • 7 might be the number of actual townies remaining, as it doesn't seem to have gone down in recent days, and since Tremula seems to have thrown every single third party role she could find into the mix. Kaimanahi was a... witch? Okay. Uh, the reference I found suggested that she could pick a target and force it to visit someone: town-of-salem.wikia.com/wiki/Witch

    All told though, keep your heads up, my fellow townies. We've been doing remarkably well, all considered. There are nowhere near as many bodies as there should be by this point, near all of them have been mafia and third party scum, and we've still got some good suspects.

    I'm guessing it's three mafia from each side, sun and moon, plus this Chosen of Pokemon. Four of those are confirmably down, I'm reasonably sure that Vivet is still one of them and almost certain Lehki's another (and is just refusing to take his deathening properly, the petulant jerk,) which just leaves the Chosen of Pokemon. I suspect that falls to Cen or Cyndarin, more likely Cen due to natural control with the Pokemon.
  • VivetVivet , of Cows and Crystals
    I'm just kind of bummed because I figured Kaimanahi would be a good focal point for today, but apparently I wasn't the only one with this idea (or close to it).
  • I am the Pathologist. I'm a Pokemon researcher, but more specifically, I'm a Pokemon psychologist. I study the effects of exposing new, undiscovered Pokemon to humans, and vice versa.

    ...and this train ride is going to provide me with material for like three theses, I swear to Arceus.

    I have administrative access to all of your Pokegears at night, so I can monitor your health and well-being. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to give much insight into mystic Pokemon visions like the one Lehki claims to have had, but it does offer a fair bit of useful information. For example, it showed me Rolsand placing his weirdo doll in Cyndarin's room. It also watched Cen when they got redirected and stuck playing all night with Togepi.

    I'll share who I watched tonight, but I'd like to hear what everyone's got going first, because what I have to share concerns someone who hasn't been very forthcoming so far, and it's really quite romantically tragic.
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie
    Kaimanahi is my kill. My method is variable. I picked her mostly through process of elimination. I wasn't terribly confident in my reasoning at the time out of the fear that I missed something important, but I'm somewhat more confident in it now. I'm going to post the full decision tree, step by step, in the hope that you people can fill in the holes. This will be a long post.
    -----------

    A. Luce's pairings remain reliable.
    A1. I'm not sure how much I can trust this particular given, but it's necessary to use any sort of elimination procedure. If there are still scum after all likely targets are eliminated, assume that this is false.

    B. It is better to kill the Chosen of Pokemon than any other scum.

    C. All other things being equal, choose the kill where being wrong has the fewest negative consequences.

    ----------

    This was (and mostly still is) our list of players and thus my list of potential targets. I want to eliminate as many potential targets as possible.

    Phoebus
    Melali
    Cen
    Kaimanahi
    Cyndarin
    Lehki
    Krackenor
    Vivet
    Thul
    Othero
    Ssaliss
    Dylara
    Ileein
    Allyrianne
    Portius
    --------

    I'm out because I know that I'm town. You guys have to decide if you believe me townness or not, but I know it. I'm fairly confident that Lehki is safe now on the basis of a mod message that I got when I last tried to kill him, but you guys don't have access to that, so your choice there is trusting my judgment or not. I'm taking Vivet as town between Sylandra's assurance (with seem like borderline mod confirmation since it didn't take her an action) and that guess that Tremula isn't slapping new scum into the game halfway through. We can also assume that Vivet is NOT the Chosen, because she died and flipped as something else. That'd require her to assume the role on resurrection, which is unlikely. Removing the people that I think are safe without relying on other people's actions leaves the following:

    Phoebus
    Melali
    Cen
    Kaimanahi
    Cyndarin
    Krackenor
    Thul
    Othero
    Ssaliss
    Dylara
    Ileein
    Allyrianne

    -----
    I'm taking Ssaliss as confirmed town and an investigator because he found two mafia for us. That could be a sacrifice to make us trust him, but that's a huge sacrifice. It seems unlikely. Confirming Ssaliss confirms Krackenor as town because of Luce. It also means that I trust him saying that Othero is town, which also means accepting his pair, Phoebus, as town. Take those people out, and you have the list of people that I looked at to pick my target.

    Melali
    Cen
    Kaimanahi
    Cyndarin
    Thul
    Dylara
    Ileein
    Allyrianne

    ------
    Within this group, there are special cases:

    Trying to pick out solid info on Cen confused me and I had trouble working out what people's guesses were. Cen is a whole, and I'm hoping you guys picked up things that I missed. Ruled Cen out until I could consult. Thul was ruled out for the same reason.

    Cyndarin may or may not be scum. I can confirm that she scans pokemon, so I'm inclined to accept the 3rd party scanner claim. On the other hand, Silvanus claimed to be in competition with that, and he turned scum. It'd be pretty easy for an entire scum group to claim to be 3rd party with an internal competition as cover. I'm confident enough in the 3rd party status to say that Cyndarin was a lower priority, but not enough to rule out being scum.

    Luce's failed pairing tells us that Dylara is either scum or town, but not a third party, if and only if third parties can be paired with each other normally.

    Melali is my prime suspect for Chosen. I considered vigilante killing him, but wasn't confident enough. The cost of being wrong was losing a jailer, which is a big cost. And all I have to go on is Sylandra's exit message, which is not great. But here's the reasoning:

    Sylandra had contact with the Chosen, probably at night. This was necessary to identify him. Melali did jail Sylandra early on in the game.

    Sylandra says that the Champion is playing very well, which would imply that he isn't on our radar as scum and may very well be an accepted town. There aren't many people who are accepted as town who aren't more or less confirmed by investigation or matchmaking.

    Jailer is a good power for someone that you want to keep alive, which the Chosen presumably is. Thus the argument from what I think Tremula would do comes in.

    Melali has been really cagey about saying who he jailed. This is consistent with not actually jailing people every night.

    This leaves me with my hypothesis: Melali is the Chosen, who can act as either a cult recruiter or a jailer on any given night. It fits with the (very small) amount of available information and it fits with his behavior so far. I wasn't confident enough to risk the vigilante killing, but I think we should strongly consider the lynch. It's risky, but I think it might be worth it. Unless someone can come out with more relevant data, of course. Even if we don't want to lynch here, look into an investigation to confirm. I could see Trem making the Chosen immune to investigation to make survival easier, but we have to assume that they work until we have reason to believe that they don't.

    Remove all those people as either safer than the others or too high risk to target except Dylara.
    ---------

    Kaimanahi
    Dylara
    Ileein
    Allyrianne

    Within this group, I picked Kaimanahi because she had been blocked a night with no kills. That doesn't mean much with all of the powers in play, but it's better than what I had on anyone else. Remove her from the list, and you get the people that I consider prime vigilante targets and likely scum:

    Dylara
    Ileein
    Allyrianne

    I'm not convinced all of them are scum, but I think they're the best targets unless someone else gets implicated. I'd also be shocked if none of them were scum. None of them have been providing much information and we have most of our big power roles claimed at this point, so they're also low risk. Remember that Melali, Cen, Cyndarin, and Thul are on the list, but got ruled out as targets for last night for various reasons and are still inferior targets to the above three until those reasons change.


    ADDENDUM: I checked the thread before I posted this, and Ileein has claimed. I haven't decided how I feel about it yet for plausibility, but it probably bumps him off the 'explain why shouldn't murder you in the night' list and puts him on the 'I don't trust you, but I have bigger fish to ruthlessly slaughter' list.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • So if Portius killed Kelly, what did scum do last night? @Krackenor, who'd you block last night?


    @Thul you're right about cult numbers at the start, but the stuff Lunaala was saying makes me worry that people might have gotten converted.

    Also, @Ssaliss I don't think you mentioned who you investigated the night before last?
  • Portius said:

    Kaimanahi is my kill.

    It's interesting that you say this, because the results of my watching provided me with information that at the very least strongly implied a different killer. I'm willing to consider that it was misleading, though that's pretty frustrating if so.
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie
    Ileein said:

    Portius said:

    Kaimanahi is my kill.

    It's interesting that you say this, because the results of my watching provided me with information that at the very least strongly implied a different killer. I'm willing to consider that it was misleading, though that's pretty frustrating if so.
    I'd like details. My kill method was strangling her with some cord that I took from a life jacket, and then shoving her doll of me down her throat so that she chokes if she comes back to life. I'm thorough.

    I'd like to point out that she did flip scum, or at least psuedoscum. So I think it's very possible that there's scum roles outside the two cults. I don't know if they were like that from the start or not. This is in reference to Thul and Lehki on scum numbers.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • Portius said:

    Ileein said:

    Portius said:

    Kaimanahi is my kill.

    It's interesting that you say this, because the results of my watching provided me with information that at the very least strongly implied a different killer. I'm willing to consider that it was misleading, though that's pretty frustrating if so.
    I'd like details. My kill method was strangling her with some cord that I took from a life jacket, and then shoving her doll of me down her throat so that she chokes if she comes back to life. I'm thorough.

    I'd like to point out that she did flip scum, or at least psuedoscum. So I think it's very possible that there's scum roles outside the two cults. I don't know if they were like that from the start or not. This is in reference to Thul and Lehki on scum numbers.
    Fine, I was hoping to get some additional claims, but here goes.

    I'm afraid my diagnosis is lover's quarrel, because I watched @Krackenor last night, and he spent most of the night engaging in a furious argument with Kaimanahi over his Pokegear. Eventually, I noted his GPS readout indicated movement towards Kaimanahi car, where the camera captured images of body... focusing in particular on her bruised throat.

    I was thus inclined to suspect Krackenor for her murder (though as she was apparently scum this wasn't damning), but your claim does seem to check out. I'm sorry, @Krackenor, and I'll be available for counseling whenever this expedition stops being a deadly madhouse.
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • I'm glad somebody has information about my night, because the majority of the message I received was lovers nonsense with a sentence saying 'oh, your target (Kaimanahi) is dead'
  • Man @Tremula, how come Ushaara and I didn't get to have make out sessions and than dramatic goodbyes on that one night we had left when we were sure one of us would die? D:

    So if Kaimanahi was not scum, and nobody was blocking them what did scum do last night instead of killing somebody?

    Also on Vivet. We know that Sylandra needed us to lynch Kalaneya that day to win, so I don't think we can 100% trust her assurance of Vivet being town. She could have just been desperate to keep focus on Kalaneya to secure her win.
  • Portius said:


    Melali is my prime suspect for Chosen. I considered vigilante killing him, but wasn't confident enough. The cost of being wrong was losing a jailer, which is a big cost. And all I have to go on is Sylandra's exit message, which is not great. But here's the reasoning:

    Sylandra had contact with the Chosen, probably at night. This was necessary to identify him. Melali did jail Sylandra early on in the game.

    Sylandra says that the Champion is playing very well, which would imply that he isn't on our radar as scum and may very well be an accepted town. There aren't many people who are accepted as town who aren't more or less confirmed by investigation or matchmaking.

    Jailer is a good power for someone that you want to keep alive, which the Chosen presumably is. Thus the argument from what I think Tremula would do comes in.

    Melali has been really cagey about saying who he jailed. This is consistent with not actually jailing people every night.

    This leaves me with my hypothesis: Melali is the Chosen, who can act as either a cult recruiter or a jailer on any given night. It fits with the (very small) amount of available information and it fits with his behavior so far. I wasn't confident enough to risk the vigilante killing, but I think we should strongly consider the lynch. It's risky, but I think it might be worth it. Unless someone can come out with more relevant data, of course. Even if we don't want to lynch here, look into an investigation to confirm. I could see Trem making the Chosen immune to investigation to make survival easier, but we have to assume that they work until we have reason to believe that they don't.

    Incidentally, I don't find this reasoning very convincing. Literally your only reasoning is:

    a) Melali hasn't told us everyone they've jailed
    b) We have essentially confirmed Melali as town via demonstrated jailer powers
    c) The Chosen was identified as someone who is "playing well."

    It seems like a huge reach to jump from "Melali is jailer" to "Melali is jailer with secret cult investigator powers."
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • Cult recruiter, not investigator. Curse you inability to edit!
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • On Luce's power, I would guess that 3p would not match with another 3p with a separate win condition, so don't think the mismatches on Dylara or Thul tell us anything

    Dylara and Allyriane haven't really given us anything all game, only Dylara did claim 3p at one point.

    Thul it's hard to tell. I don't think he's provided anything besides that he accidentally saved me one night with an aeon power he didn't know he had, and that he has some weird nature that would have made Luce's power(and presumably other powers?) fail on him. Is he actually a Dialga in disguise?
  • Lehki said:


    Also, @Ssaliss I don't think you mentioned who you investigated the night before last?

    I actually tried to investigate Kaimanahi that night, but I was rather distracted, for obvious reasons.
    Portius said:

    This leaves me with my hypothesis: Melali is the Chosen, who can act as either a cult recruiter or a jailer on any given night. It fits with the (very small) amount of available information and it fits with his behavior so far. I wasn't confident enough to risk the vigilante killing, but I think we should strongly consider the lynch. It's risky, but I think it might be worth it. Unless someone can come out with more relevant data, of course. Even if we don't want to lynch here, look into an investigation to confirm. I could see Trem making the Chosen immune to investigation to make survival easier, but we have to assume that they work until we have reason to believe that they don't.

    I investigated Melali some nights ago (three? four?). I saw him slap on a PPD badge. Take that as you wish; I saw no more, and no less.
    image
  • PortiusPortius Likes big books, cannot lie
    Ok, I'm willing to take Melali as probably safe on strength of Ssaliss' testimony. At very least, not a priority lynch. Seeing the badge doesn't necessarily mean a town identity, but it does back up his previous statements.

    That having been said, Melali has made several nonspecific claims of jailing anonymous individuals, but the only person that he's named is Sylandra. That does not instill confidence in the claim. I'll take him as probably town because of Ssaliss, but I don't think his actions are enough to confirm him on their own. Not naming the jailer's target on nights with no kills strikes me as being especially suspicious, given that those people are prime mafia suspects. Keeping quiet denies relatively high-value information to the town, and admitting that you jailed someone without saying who carries almost as much risk and exposure as just saying everything. But if he has a second power? Noncommittal statements of jailing someone are a good way to cover that. If he's a recruiter, he can't list his recruits (if the cult persists after his death) because that paints a target on them when he flips.

    I think it'd be good if we had a list of his past jailer targets. He's said that they know that he jailed them, so any reasonably confirmed town who got jailed could verify.
    Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
  • I must have missed something, cuz it's not obvious to me. I'll look back when I'm off of work. D:
  • Portius said:

    Ok, I'm willing to take Melali as probably safe on strength of Ssaliss' testimony. At very least, not a priority lynch. Seeing the badge doesn't necessarily mean a town identity, but it does back up his previous statements.

    That having been said, Melali has made several nonspecific claims of jailing anonymous individuals, but the only person that he's named is Sylandra. That does not instill confidence in the claim. I'll take him as probably town because of Ssaliss, but I don't think his actions are enough to confirm him on their own. Not naming the jailer's target on nights with no kills strikes me as being especially suspicious, given that those people are prime mafia suspects. Keeping quiet denies relatively high-value information to the town, and admitting that you jailed someone without saying who carries almost as much risk and exposure as just saying everything. But if he has a second power? Noncommittal statements of jailing someone are a good way to cover that. If he's a recruiter, he can't list his recruits (if the cult persists after his death) because that paints a target on them when he flips.

    I think it'd be good if we had a list of his past jailer targets. He's said that they know that he jailed them, so any reasonably confirmed town who got jailed could verify.

    I have been jailed by Melali. Melali can state which night I got jailed if you'd like more confirmation.
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • Lehki said:

    I must have missed something, cuz it's not obvious to me. I'll look back when I'm off of work. D:

    Last night was when me and the Kraken got together.
    image
  • Er, the night before last night, rather. Anyway.
    image
  • TremulaTremula Banished Quasiroyal
    I'll pull back on the romance novellas if you all want, it's just fun to fill in extra fluff when there's occasionally not a lot to say in your messages.
                          * * * WRACK AND ROLL AND DEATH AND PAIN * * *
                                         * * * LET'S FEEL THE FEAR OF DEATH AGAIN * * *
              * * * WE'LL KILL AND SLAUGHTER, EAT THE SLAIN * * *
      * * * IN RAVAGING WE'LL ENTERTAIN * * *

    Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
  • I tried to Pokedex Thul and got amnesia.
  • My jailings. On n1, I jailed Ileein. On n2, I jailed Sylandra. On n3, I jailed Phoebus. On n4, I jailed Kalaneya. On n5, I tried and failed to jail Thul. On n6, last night, I jailed Dylara. (There's the night that we skipped, but I forget where it goes. )

    Also, last night I got a cute doll of Portis appear on my bedside table, for some strange reason.

    The reason I've been cagey about who I've been jailing is that, in addition to jailing, I can talk during the night with those I jail. Thus, I've been trying to create basically a Mason group, sort of. I've heard the claims of everyone I've jailed, though, of course, some have lied to me.
  • Melali said:

    My jailings. On n1, I jailed Ileein.

    I can confirm this!
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • Also, Thul may or may not be immune to night actions, as Cyndarin failed to check their Pokedex, Melali failed to jail them, and when I tried watching their Pokegear activity, I got a big fat nothing.
    Jadice, the Frost Queen says to you, "Constant vigilance."
  • Soooo Dylara was jailed and there was no mafia kill?

    I think I'd like to hear more about her claimed role.
  • Also, I really don't think Melali began as scum, but it's possible that he has been converted since Ssaliss investigated him. That said, it's easy enough to have Dylara and Thul confirm that they were jailed the last two nights.
  • Oh. Hrm.

    Dylara is already in question, but how confident are we that Thul is town? If all three are scum, then having Melali claim to have jailed them and then having them corroborate doesn't count for much.

    Ugh, I feel like this game is getting more complicated the longer it continues.
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